Dax remains in breather mode – from which brand this should change

Dusseldorf The German stock market moved within a narrow framework on Tuesday: The Dax closed 0.3 percent up at 15,516 points. Today’s trading range was low at around 80 points.

Two brands are now in the focus of the rest of the trading week: 15,600 points on the top. Quotes above this level would, on the one hand, confirm the new upward trend from last week and, on the other hand, remove important technical resistance. For Jörg Scherer from HSBC Germany, overcoming this mark would “make a rally back to the all-time high of 16,030 points on August 13 very likely”.

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On the bottom, the range of around 15,000 meters is particularly relevant. Prices below 15,012 points, the low of the previous week, would quickly end the uptrend from last week. Then it should go towards 14,800 points, as in the beginning of October, the lowest point since the beginning of April.

Look at individual values

Delivery Hero: The company joins the Gorillas food delivery service. The restaurant delivery service has put 200 million euros into the start-up, which was founded last year, and is getting eight percent of the shares in return. Mathematically, this results in a valuation of three billion dollars (2.5 billion euros) for Gorillas Technologies GmbH. Delivery Hero shares reacted on Tuesday with a plus of 1.3 percent.

Software AG: At the close of trading, stocks on the German stock market were almost eleven percent in the red. The SAP rival screwed up its full-year targets for operating profit. However, stockbrokers complained about the disappointing bookings in the Digital Business division. In addition, the profit margin recovery is sluggish.

Munich Re: Despite billions in damage from natural disasters, the company has stayed in the black and has confirmed its forecast. The world’s largest reinsurer achieved a profit of around 400 million euros in the third quarter, as the Dax Group announced on Tuesday on the basis of preliminary figures. According to the group, analysts had expected an average loss of ten million euros. The Munich Re share turned positive after the announcement and closed 2.6 percent higher.

Teamviewer: In the case of the remote maintenance software specialist, after the recent stabilization, the shareholders had to cope with price losses of more than 7.5 percent and a new record low of EUR 12.81. The paper was able to partially make up for the losses. It remains a minus of 2.8 percent.

Nemetschek: The papers of the software provider Nemetschek, which specializes in construction software, are continuing their recovery rally: They rose in price by almost one and a half percent and at times even reached a record high of 94.14 euros.

Bitcoin remains close to a record high

The first listed Bitcoin fund (ETF) in the USA started trading on the cryptocurrency market. The financial product with the title Proshares Bitcoin Strategy ETF rose shortly after the start of trading, then turned into the red and has hardly changed recently.

In view of the often strong fluctuations in the Bitcoin price, the financial product’s debut on the New York Exchange was therefore rather quiet. However, the exchange-traded ETF does not map the Bitcoin itself, but futures contracts on the cryptocurrency.

Investors shouldn’t be surprised if the saying goes: “Buy on rumors, sell on facts.” That should then mean falling prices for Bitcoin soon. There are two suitable examples of this: In connection with the hype surrounding the IPO of the Coinbase crypto exchange, Bitcoin reached its record high of over $ 64.00 on the first day of trading, but then crashed.

The introduction of the Bitcoin futures also boosted the price, it was the so-called “Rally to the moon” around 2017 with an increase of more than 2000 percent. On the day the future was traded, the starting signal was given for a decline of 83 percent. It will be interesting to see whether this stock market history will repeat itself. The cryptocurrency is currently trading in a 24-hour comparison with a plus of 0.4 percent at a good $ 62,500.

Falling lira is making itself felt on the bond market

In the run-up to the meeting of the Turkish central bank on Thursday of this week, the lira is tumbling from one record low to the next. In return, both the dollar and the euro are climbing to new record highs.

It does not matter how much the Turkish central bank screwed down the key phrase in its expected interest rate cut, said Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann. “The message will be clear: the central bank no longer takes the consequences of its interest rate policy into account for exchange rates, inflation and ultimately for the stability of the Turkish economy.” The decision on monetary policy will be made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a declared opponent of high interest rates.

However, the falling lira rate is already noticeable on the bond market, which had survived the turmoil around the Chinese real estate group Evergrande. The depreciation of the lira is now too extreme for bond buyers. Omotunde Lawal, head of the emerging market corporate bond department at Barings, says: “The larger the scale and the faster it occurs, the more it can damage companies.”

Although some corporations had hedged their currency risks, no one had expected a lira rate of nine lira per dollar, she added to the business intelligence service Bloomberg. “It will be a while before companies will be able to raise prices to offset the effects of the devaluation.”

Okan Akin, credit analyst at Alliance Bernstein in London, says: “An extreme devaluation would violate confidence and Turkey could face a currency liquidity crisis” – a very big risk if the US Federal Reserve allows its loose monetary policy to expire. “A strong devaluation would weaken banks’ capital ratios and trigger a sell-off in bank bonds.”

What the Dax chart technology says

According to the technical analysis, the Dax picture is gradually improving: The Dax has held the strategically important zone slightly above the 14,800 mark. The long-term important 200-day line, which is currently at 15,086 meters, has not yet been undercut on a sustainable basis.

With the new highs in October, an important trend-following indicator generated a buy signal. The name for this is MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) and consists of two moving averages.

For the technical analysts at HSBC Germany, this indicator gives “a buy signal for the first time since the end of July” – the best since November 2020. To explain: In both cases, the Dax then rose significantly. In November 2020, the stock market barometer was 11,450 points, then the starting signal for the vaccine rally was given. And in July the Dax slipped to 15,000 points, after which the record high of 16,030 points was reached.

Jörg Scherer, Head of Technical Analysis, said on Thursday last week before the start of trading: “For bullish investors, there is definitely a buying opportunity, especially since the risk can be narrowly limited with a tight stop below 14,800 points.”

However, the resistance on the way up is varied, especially in the range between 15,550 and 15,600 points. The breakout beyond that should be seen as the next buy signal towards a record high, says Scherer.

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