Dax on course for recovery – Uniper shares rise by more than 28 percent

The Dax started the trading month of June with a plus on Thursday. By the close of trading, the leading German index had risen by 1.2 percent and closed at 15,853 points.

This means that the time when the Dax was sedentary should be over. After the stock exchange barometer moved in a trading range of only two percent for five weeks, the radius of movement since the record high almost two weeks ago is already 4.3 percent. However, a new direction cannot yet be derived from the increased fluctuations.

For Jörg Scherer, Head of Technical Analysis at HSBC Germany, the German standard values ​​appear to be battered in the short term, especially since the trading volume also increased on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the support zone between 15,700 and around 15,600 points, which has existed since the beginning of April, has held so far. And in the short term, the signs are good that this area should continue.

Number of bulls falls to record low

At least that’s what the Frankfurt Stock Exchange’s weekly survey of medium-term institutional and private investors suggests. After evaluating the current data, the behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg is certain: “The current mood is not unfavorable for the Dax.”

Because the camp of bulls, who are betting on rising prices, has fallen to a new all-time low since the survey began in 2002 and, according to the survey, now accounts for only twelve percent of all institutional investors. 80 percent of the former optimists now prefer to wait and see. This group accounts for 40 percent of all respondents, the highest since August 4, 2021.

“The majority of former bulls obviously do not believe that the Dax is capable of rising again, but after the experiences of the previous week they are not prepared to position themselves on the side of the pessimists,” explains Goldberg.

However, a historically low level of optimists, paired with the relatively high level of neutral players, means that there is a high potential for demand if the Dax should correct further downwards.

According to Goldberg’s estimate, the catchment line is probably in the range between 15,550 and 15,600 Dax counters. Yesterday’s trading day with the daily low at 15,629 points supported this view.

However, no scenario for the upside can be derived from these values. “It is still uncertain whether similar demand would arise in the event of a significant rise in the Dax beyond its previous all-time high, for example due to long-term capital inflows,” says Goldberg.

June is one of the weak stock market months

However, seasonal factors call for caution. For one thing, May was the first stock market month this year to end in the red. On the other hand, statistically speaking, June is one of the weaker stock market months.

There are different values ​​depending on the period under review, but overall June, together with August and September, is one of the three weakest months on the stock market. In the past stock market year, there was even the worst June of all time, because the Dax slipped almost twelve percent.

Positive signals from China

A positive signal came from China this Thursday. In contrast to the official purchasing managers’ index published yesterday, the privately determined Caixin purchasing managers’ index has jumped back over the expansion threshold of 50. The current reading of 50.9 certainly does not predict an impending economic boom, but it does signal growth and not a slowdown in economic activity.

Market analyst Halver. “A technical recession is practically priced in”

Inflation rate for the euro zone falls

The price pressure in the euro area eased significantly in May. Consumer prices rose by 6.1 percent compared to the same month last year. This was announced by the European statistical office Eurostat on Thursday based on an initial estimate.

>>Read here: Inflation in the euro zone falls more than expected in May

Experts had previously expected a value of 6.3 percent. In April, inflation was seven percent. The much-noticed core inflation rate is now 5.3 percent after 5.6 percent in the previous month. The inflation rate adjusted for energy and food is considered a good indicator of the medium-term price trend.

Look at individual values

SAP: SAP’s shares rose 0.6 percent. The market pointed out that Salesforce had delivered decent numbers after the US stock market closed. However, only poor growth prospects were criticized, since the software group is currently focusing more on profit development. Salesforce papers plummeted.

Unipers: The rapid rally in shares of the nationalized utility continued on Thursday, rising 28.3 percent.

Uniper announced last week that, thanks to hedging transactions, “significant profits from the replacement procurement of gas volumes” are expected for Russian supply cuts. Further equity increases by the federal government would therefore no longer be necessary.

Heidelberg Material: The papers increased two percent to 68.24 euros. According to traders, analysts at JP Morgan have upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “neutral” and raised the price target to 80 euros.

The following shares are traded on Thursday with a dividend discount: Commerzbank (0.20 euros dividend, 9.40 euros closing price Wednesday), Evonik (1.17 euros, 18.75 euros), Secunet Security (2.86 euros, 198.40 euros ) and Suess Microtec (0.20 euros, 24.75 euros).

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.

source site-12