Dax makes up for initial losses – local investment professionals remain pessimistic


The ten-year federal bond has also climbed to its highest level since the beginning of 2011 and was quoted at 2.76 percent on Thursday. The federal bond with a term of two years is listed at 3.26 percent, its highest level since the end of 2008. This means that bonds are increasingly becoming an alternative for investors.

Domestic investment professionals remain pessimistic

The starting point for investor sentiment has hardly changed. According to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey, domestic institutional investors have hardly moved since last Wednesday. Her attitude remains persistently pessimistic.

This pessimism should not come as a surprise when you look at the forecasts made by investment strategists for the stock market year 2023 at the end of last year. The unanimous tenor at the time: a weak first half of the year with a subsequent chance of prices rising again. Those who have positioned themselves according to this forecast are either underweight equities or are now trying to sell their short positions.

Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates the Frankfurt survey, concludes from the attitude of professional investors that many of these pessimists, known as “bears”, are still in the red with their short positions or are only slightly in the black.

The behavioral economist expects that these bears will probably only close their short positions if the price falls significantly, probably only when the Dax is just under 15,000 points.

Such short speculation works like a short sale. The underlying asset is sold first in the hope of being able to buy it back later at a lower price. If the underlying asset is bought back when the short position is closed, this supports the market.

However, the current number of pessimists is not so high that they could contribute to a so-called short squeeze, a brilliant price jump, with their sales in the event of further price increases. For Goldberg, however, the robustness of the Dax also depends on the continuation of international capital inflows, which so far do not seem to have decreased significantly.

Inflation rate for the euro zone

The inflation rate for the euro zone on Thursday confirmed what Germany, France and Spain have already shown with their higher-than-expected consumer prices. Inflation has remained stubbornly high in February.

Consumer prices in the euro area rose by 8.5 percent compared to the same month last year. This was announced by the European statistical office Eurostat on Thursday based on an initial estimate. In January, the inflation rate was 8.6 percent.

For the capital market expert Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, due to the new inflation data in the ECB Council, there should be no major discussions again until May at the earliest. “The next 50 basis point move for March is now set in stone,” he said.

Look at the individual values

Covestro: After losses in 2022, the plastics manufacturer is preparing for a decline in operating earnings in the new financial year. The share therefore slipped 6.7 percent and is the weakest value in the Dax on today’s trading day.

The company is struggling with high energy costs. In addition, there were ongoing impairments from the coronavirus pandemic in China, high inflation and an overall slowdown in global economic growth.

>> Read here: Chemical companies expect profits to fall – Covestro cancels dividend

Evonik: The specialty chemicals group expects profits to fall in 2023 due to high energy prices and uncertainty about economic development. In the first quarter in particular, the negative development of the second half of 2022 is likely to continue, after which the situation should improve. The share loses 0.4 percent in value after this prospect.

Merck: After a significant increase in profits last year, the company is preparing for increasing pressure. Merck expects 2023 to be a challenging year due to the weakening market for semiconductors, a further decline in demand for corona drugs and persistently high inflation.

Negative exchange rate effects are also likely to have a negative impact on the pharmaceutical and technology company. The share was able to make up for the initial losses and is up 1.2 percent.

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