Dusseldorf The German stock market remains in its overall short-term sideways movement. The Dax closed unchanged on Thursday at 15,222 points. Trading was restrained overall: there were just 100 points between the highest and lowest point.
Above 15,400 points, there has been sufficient demand since Monday to support the Dax. The lowest point so far this week is 15,416. So far, however, investors have not allowed the leading index to jump over the presumably decisive mark of 15,600 points. On the upside, it closed at 15,567 points on Wednesday.
The fund manager survey by Bank of America, in which a particularly large number of 380 international asset managers took part, was again informative. Probably the most important point: Bonds are more unpopular than ever because of high fears of inflation.
This indirectly speaks in favor of higher share prices. Because, unlike private investors, professionals cannot simply say goodbye to the market. The money has to be invested – and stocks are a suitable alternative here.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
US equities are seen much more positively again with a net 16 percent overweight, an increase of six percentage points. Net, in the terminology of the survey, means that there are 16 percent more investors who overweight US stocks than those who don’t.
European stocks are still more popular with a net 34 percent of mentions. However, this proportion is declining. Given the price decline since the beginning of September for the Dax, that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Look at the individual values
Industrial stocks were among the losers in Wednesday trading, presumably due to falling bond yields. On the stock market, there is currently a connection that rising interest rates signal stronger economic growth, from which cyclical industrial stocks and banks should benefit more. Of course, this also applies the other way round.
The yield on a ten-year government bond was still minus 0.093 percent at the start of trading, but fell to minus 0.127 percent by the evening. In return, VW’s paper slipped by up to 3.7 percent and was meanwhile the weakest Dax40 value. At the end of trading, VW was down 1.7 percent. MTU titles lost 2.2 percent.
Nestlé: Thanks to the strong demand for coffee products and pet food, the Swiss group is increasing its sales forecast for the full year for the second time in three months.
The sustained momentum in the retail sector, the recovery in the restaurant business and market share gains have provided a boost. In addition, there were price increases of 1.6 percent, with which the group wants to compensate for the higher spending on purchasing. The company warned last month that purchase prices could rise even more in 2022 than in the current year.
Nestlé is not alone in this development. French competitor Danone expects inflationary pressures to rise in the coming year, while Procter & Gamble plans to raise prices in the US to counter higher raw material and freight costs. “Most companies with strong brands will be able to pass the prices on, and I don’t think the market has understood that yet,” said Kepler-Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox. The Nestle shares rose by 2.7 percent.
German Stock Exchange: The papers were at minus 2.5 percent at the end of the Dax – after slightly better than expected quarterly figures and retained targets for the full year and for the medium term. In the case of the market operator, reference was made to a somewhat weaker cyclical earnings component than in the previous year, as the market fluctuations have so far been less severe than in 2020.
SGL Carbon: The shares, which were already very weak the day before, also came under heavy pressure on Wednesday with a minus of more than 13 percent to 7.53 euros. At the bottom of the SDAX, the title of carbon specialist fell significantly. But there is no current news. In order to classify the price losses, however, a trader also pointed to the very good development so far this year. The paper cost 3.55 euros at the beginning of the year.
Auto1: In the MDax, the shares were top value with a gain of almost four percent. As Europe’s largest trading platform for used cars announced, the partnership with Volvo is being expanded. Through this cooperation, the Auto1 Group gains another channel for trade-ins and leasing returns.
KWS Saat: The seed manufacturer from Einbeck wants to distribute more money to the shareholders after a profit increase. In view of the increase in earnings, the management board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.80 per share. KWS paid EUR 0.70 in the previous year. Nevertheless, the share fell 1.5 percent.
Bitcoin rises to a new record high
Investors’ speculative enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies has increased with the listing of the first exchange-traded Bitcoin ETF in the US. The volatile digital asset hit a new record high, according to the data website Coinmarketcap. The previous mark was $ 64,863.
But it remains to be seen whether the ETF listing will fuel the next spike in Bitcoin prices or whether it will prove to be an opportunity for profit-taking, according to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at FX broker Oanda. “Either of these could trigger some pretty wild cryptocurrency price action,” he wrote in a note.
Analyst Timo Emden from Emden Research saw the course as positive on Wednesday morning: “The fact that profit-taking on a large scale has so far not taken place suggests that investors are hungry for more”.
What the Dax chart technology says
According to the technical analysis, the Dax picture is gradually improving: The Dax has held the strategically important zone slightly above the 14,800 mark. Even the long-term important 200-day line, which is currently at 15,101 meters, has not yet been undercut on a sustainable basis.
With the new highs in October, an important trend-following indicator generated a buy signal. The name for this is MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) and consists of two moving averages.
For the technical analysts at HSBC Germany, this indicator gives “a buy signal for the first time since the end of July” – the best since November 2020. To explain: In both cases, the Dax then rose significantly. In November 2020, the stock market barometer was 11,450 points, then the starting signal for the vaccine rally was given. And in July the Dax slipped down to 15,000 points, after which the record high of 16,030 points was reached.
However, the resistance on the way up is varied, especially in the range between 15,550 and 15,600 points. The breakout beyond that should be seen as the next buy signal towards a record high, says Scherer.
Click here to go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.