Dax continues to grow – monetary policy in focus

Dusseldorf The Dax starts the new trading week in positive territory. At the start of trading, the leading index gained 0.7 percent and was trading at 15,143 points. He is thus continuing the trend from Friday: the consolidation initially seems to have been postponed, after a setback on Thursday, the Dax ended the trading week up 0.8 percent at 15,034 points. Since the Dax has risen sharply in a short time, setbacks can also occur again.

However, positive impetus is coming from the USA: the US indices all closed in positive territory on Friday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq even recorded its largest daily gain since the end of November with a plus of 2.9 percent. The reason for this is probably the unexpectedly good quarterly figures from Netflix. The streaming provider increased its revenue by 1.9 percent to $7.85 billion, and user numbers rose by 7.6 million to 231 million in the fourth quarter.

Hardly any signals are likely to come from Asia on Monday, because the Chinese stock exchanges will remain closed from Monday to Friday due to the Chinese New Year holidays, the stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan will also only open on January 30th. Japanese indices followed Wall Street higher.

Investors continue to focus on monetary policy. In the evening, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at Deutsche Börse’s New Year’s reception. Market participants are hoping for clues as to how much the ECB will hike interest rates at the next few meetings.

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Economists surveyed by Reuters recently expected that the ECB will raise the deposit rate, which banks receive for parking excess funds at the central bank, by a further 0.5 percentage points in February and March. The economists surveyed assume that the ECB will then raise interest rates by a further 0.25 percent in the next quarter and then take a break.

At noon, the Bundesbank will also publish its first monthly report of the year, which should give an indication of how the monetary watchdogs assess the situation with regard to inflation and the economy. The European Commission will also publish data on consumer confidence in the euro zone in January.

Look at the chart technique

The Dax jumped over 15,000 points very quickly – this area remains of great interest. The first stop-loss marks, which investors use to protect themselves against falling prices, are likely to be just below this level.

From a technical point of view, a healthy consolidation would be beneficial. On the one hand, the focus is on the area around 15,365 points in the medium term. There is further technical support in the area around 14,800 points, as well as short-term around the current price level of 14,980 points.

Look at the euro and oil

The euro rose significantly at the beginning of the week and rose overnight to its highest level since April 2022. Most recently, the euro was quoted at $ 1.0892. On the one hand, this is probably due to the now more optimistic forecasts for the European economy, and on the other hand to the confirmation by some ECB representatives that they want to further tighten monetary policy significantly.

Oil prices hardly moved at the start of the week. On Monday morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent for delivery in March cost 87.49 US dollars. A barrel of the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety, also for March delivery, cost $81.49.

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