Dax continues small rally

Dusseldorf The initial upward movement on Wednesday clearly showed how great the influence of technical indicators is on the stock market. Because yesterday, Tuesday, the Dax was able to overcome the 200-day line, which is relevant for many investors and currently stands at 15,613 points. This new situation continues to ensure a friendly mood, because many investors base their investment decisions on this 200-day line.

The Dax rose to 15,738 points on Wednesday. At this point, the Frankfurt benchmark had rallied almost 800 points within eight trading days. But then it became apparent how difficult it is for the leading German index to continue to climb towards 16,000 points. The Dax is currently back at 15,634 digits, an increase of only 0.1 percent. Yesterday, Tuesday, the stock market barometer closed at 15,619 points, an increase of one percent.

Because the positive course of the reporting season so far is currently outweighing the forthcoming US interest rate turnaround and the Ukraine conflict. For Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, “corporate profits are the classic fuel of the stock market”. After all, “companies are traded there, not political developments”.

With today’s price gains, the decision about the 16,000 point mark will soon be on the agenda. It would be a surprise if the Dax surpassed this psychologically important mark in the coming trading days and even climbed a new record high. The previous one was 16,290 points.

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Investors rely on different ECB monetary policy

A look at the bond yields, especially in the area of ​​shorter maturities, shows how far the interest rate turnaround has progressed. At minus 0.455 percent, the yield on a two-year federal bond is at its highest level since the beginning of 2016. The two-year bond reacts particularly sensitively to the monetary policy of the ECB. This rise shows that investors are betting on a change in ultra-loose monetary policy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will not shake its monetary policy at its meeting on Thursday, predicted Sandra Holdsworth, senior analyst at asset manager Aegon. However, investors would scrutinize the comments and statements made by ECB President Christine Lagarde for indications of an imminent tightening of monetary policy.

The yield on the ten-year federal bond remains in positive territory and is quoted at plus 0.040 percent. For Jörg Scherer, technical analyst at HSBC Germany, “investors have to be prepared for further increases in interest rates in the coming months”. That situation would not change until the 10-year yield fell below last month’s low of minus 0.19 percent.

From a technical point of view, the next point of contact on the way up is the interest rate lows from 2017/18 at 0.15 and 0.19 percent. According to Scherer, the calculated minimum price target can even be estimated at around 0.60 percent and harmonizes well with the highs of October 2018 and July 2017 at 0.58 percent/0.64 percent.

European inflation data in focus

The inflation rate in the euro area increased again at the beginning of the year. Prices rose by 5.1 percent, the highest value since statistics began in 1997. This is heating up the debate on the central bank’s course ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) council meeting next Thursday.

Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer evaluates the inflation number in January as a “shocker”. The value is miles above the expectations of the previously surveyed economists. Krämer expects consumer prices to continue to rise significantly in the coming months. Because the upstream producer prices have risen massively until recently.

Look at the individual values

Team viewer: The Swabian software company Teamviewer wants to grow almost as strongly in the current year as in 2021. And the company now wants to soften the shareholders with a large-scale share buyback. By the end of the year, up to 20 million shares – almost ten percent of the share capital – are to be bought back for up to 300 million euros. Most of the papers will be confiscated. This news caused the shares to increase by almost 17 percent.

Infineon/Aixtron: Shares from the semiconductor industry were also in demand again. Infineon grow 1.6 percent. The papers of the chip supplier Aixtron gained 1.1 percent. Traders attributed the surcharges to a surprisingly high sales forecast by US chip manufacturer AMD for the current quarter.

Dic Asset/VIB Assets: The real estate investor has encountered resistance from its management with its purchase offer for the Bavarian logistics real estate developer VIB Vermögen. DIC wants to increase its participation from ten to 51 percent and is offering 51 euros per VIB share. At a rate of EUR 51, the VIP paper remains at the currently valid offer.

Siltronic: The chip supplier exceeded its own expectations in the past year and is cautiously optimistic for 2022 after the failed takeover by competitor Globalwafers. The company is benefiting from the global chip boom in the corona pandemic. Sales have risen significantly, prices slightly. The company expects a positive market environment and significantly increasing prices, the statement said. “However, significantly rising costs due to inflation will have a significant impact on the result.” After a friendly start, the Siltronic share fell by 0.5 percent.

SGL Carbon: A positive analyst comment creates a buying mood among the shareholders. The shares of the graphite electrode provider rose by 4.9 percent to 6.48 euros. The experts at HSBC have upgraded the title to “Hold” from “Reduce” and raised the price target to EUR 6.50 from EUR 6.20.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.

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