Dusseldorf On the German stock market, investors find it difficult to interpret the decisions of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening. After the initial rise to 13,239 points, the Dax then slipped around 150 points, but recovered again. In afternoon trading, the leading index was almost unchanged at 13,178 points.
The stock market barometer thus remains in its six-day breather after the 1000-point rally from early to mid-July. Only courses above 13,400 points, the high point of this upward movement, would break up this formation. Investors who want to continue the upward movement should wait patiently until the Dax overcomes this short-term hurdle. On the downside, with sustained listings below 13,000 points, there is a risk that the rally will end.
After the Fed’s expected 75 basis point rate hike last Friday, futures pros are growing convinced that rates will only be hiked another 50 basis points at the next September meeting. According to the Chicago Stock Exchange CME’s Fed Watch tool, two-thirds now expect a hike of 50 basis points, compared to only half of the pros yesterday, Wednesday
However, an important question must be answered for the rally on the German stock market to continue: Which buyers can drive the Dax further up? According to the Dax-Sentiment survey by Handelsblatt and the survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, only long-term capital inflows, especially from abroad, can bring about a change in trend.
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According to a survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange among medium-term investors, a majority of domestic professionals are still sitting on high book losses. Selling these positions at current levels seems too painful.
On the one hand, they are no longer buyers and, on the other hand, they are likely to slow down the upswing with their sales if prices should rise. Incidentally, according to investor psychology, such a situation leads to an interesting side effect. The longer such book losses last, the more resistant investors become to negative economic and political information, which is at least psychologically minimized through selective perception. This is the opinion of behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg, the leading German sentiment expert, after evaluating the current survey by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
The trade survey Dax-Sentiment on Monday of this week already showed: The cash ratio fell from extremely high to extremely low within a few days. This means that many investors have already positioned themselves “long” in the rising prices of the past week in order to benefit from the rally. As a result, they have bet on further rising prices and are no longer buyers.
Quiet location at the gas market
The situation on the gas market is calming down. At the start of trading, the price per megawatt hour fell to EUR 194, but is currently unchanged at EUR 206. Yesterday, Wednesday, the price peaked at 227 euros.
This is the TTF futures contract for Dutch natural gas, which is considered to be a trend-setter for the European natural gas market. After a 10-day maintenance break, Gazprom pumped gas through the pipeline again last week, albeit in smaller volumes than before. On Wednesday morning, the state-owned company again restricted the gas volume from 40 percent to 20 percent of the pipeline capacity.
Will the German inflation rate continue to fall?
The data calendar is packed to the brim this Thursday. The Federal Statistical Office announced how inflation developed in July in a first estimate on Thursday afternoon. In June, consumer prices rose by 7.6 percent compared to the same month last year. In May, the increase was 7.9 percent.
The second decline in the annual rate in a row is expected. A renewed decline in inflation would be a positive signal for the stock markets. A falling German inflation rate would also take some pressure off the ECB.
In the USA, the growth rate for the second quarter is expected today. This will determine whether the US is already in recession. After the decline in economic output in the first quarter, investors and analysts expect positive growth in the second quarter.
The world’s largest economy would have escaped the first recession since Corona. According to the capital market expert Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, a negative surprise in the growth rate could cause new turbulence on the stock exchanges.
Look at the individual values
Fresenius Medical Care: A lack of staff and rising costs are forcing the DAX group Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) to withdraw its annual targets. This also applies to the parent company Fresenius, which is also lowering its forecast. FMC shares fell 12.2 percent, Fresenius 7.7 percent.
Aixtron: Full order books and strong growth in the second quarter make the chip systems manufacturer confident that it will achieve its goals. “Despite the challenging market environment, we were able to grow as planned with supply chains that remained strained,” explained CFO Christian Danninger. The share gained 1.2 percent.
Wacker chemistry: Business at the Munich-based specialty chemicals group is booming despite high energy costs and price increases. The family business significantly raised its sales and profit forecasts for the current year on Thursday.
CEO Christian Hartel is worried about the further rise in prices. So far, Wacker has managed to pass the cost increases on to customers. After an increase of 2.4 percent the day before, the paper rose by a further 8.3 percent.
Airbus: The world’s largest aircraft manufacturer has had to slow down its ambitious growth plans because of problems with its suppliers. The shares were down around 5.3 percent.
kion: Supply chain disruptions hit forklift manufacturer Kion in the first half of the year. In view of the imponderables, the Executive Board did not dare to make an exact forecast for the year as a whole. However, he expects that the EBIT will be below the previous year as a result of the material bottlenecks and price increases. The paper loses 1.3 percent.
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