Dusseldorf The first investors are betting on a mild trend in the new Omikron variant. There was no other explanation for the fact that almost all asset classes behaved accordingly. Last Friday there was less risk, there was a “risk off” mood.
But on Monday, investors took risk again. Stocks were bought and government bonds were sold. The price of gold stayed below the $ 1,800 mark and even bitcoin stabilized again. The oil price climbed significantly again after the dramatic price slide of eleven percent last Friday.
Accordingly, the German stock market picked up again. The Dax rose on Monday afternoon by 0.6 percent to 15,354 points. It closed with an increase of 0.2 percent at 15,280 points. The final score last Friday was 15,257 points, which corresponded to a decrease of 4.2 percent and more than 660 positions. At the weekend, the leading index had temporarily quoted over the counter near the 15,000 point mark.
Does this mean that the risk of course slides similar to last Friday’s been averted? Quite possible, but ultimately Investors don’t know enough about the new virus variant. So far there are no answers to the two important questions: How severe are the disease processes? And how well do the previous vaccines work against it?
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As long as there are no answers to these questions, the uncertainty remains high. And high uncertainty almost always leads to high fluctuations in both directions. That is why Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners also advises: “Investors shouldn’t be lulled into security by today’s recovery movement. ” It is probably better to pay attention to the relevant Dax brands on the bottom and top.
Which Dax brands should investors look out for?
On the bottom, three areas were important. First, the number 15,244, which was not negotiated on Monday. That was the lowest price in last Friday’s sell-off. Any point below that would be a sign of weakness and increase the risk of another significant slide.
The round, psychologically important mark of 15,000 points served as the second area. This area was already a support on Friday after the trading session. 15,027 points were the lowest point around 9:30 p.m., before the leading index ended its after-hours trading at 15,111 points at 10 p.m.
The decisive mark, on the other hand, was around 14,800, or to be more precise, 14,817 meters. There is the lowest limit of the Dax sideways movement from the beginning of April to the beginning of November. A slide below this mark would be catastrophic and could wipe out all profits this trading year. So far, the Dax has been up 11 percent since the beginning of the year.
It sounds crazy to some investors, but a year-end spurt is still possible. Because if the Omikron variant is harmless and / or the previous vaccines provide adequate protection, the chances of the course are immensely high. Then the mark of 16,000 points and the record high of 16,290 positions should quickly come into focus again.
The first requirement for this would be a price above 15,865 points. That is the lowest level last Thursday. If the Dax noted about it, the entire price slide on Friday would be over. Quotes above 15,600 meters would also be a first signal of easing.
Travel stocks make a comeback
But not only for the asset classes, but also for the individual stocks there was an opposite trend compared to Friday. After the price slide on Friday, investors returned to Lufthansa and Fraport. The shares of the airline and the airport operator rose to the top to four Percent.
On Friday, the papers had lost double-digit percentages for fear of the consequences of the newly discovered corona variant Omikron. For both of them it was the biggest daily minus since the stock market crash in March 2020, when Germany was hit by the first corona wave.
The shares of the online retailer Zalando and the cooker box mail order company Hellofresh, which had risen sharply on Friday, fell against it 1.6 and 0.6, respectively Percent after.
Oil price climbs by more than five percent
Speculation about a break in the production expansion by Opec plus gave the oil price a boost. In addition, some investors took advantage of the recent price slide to re-enter the market, said economist Tatsufumi Okoshi of the investment bank Nomura.
The prices of Brent and WTI rose by more than five percent to $ 76.48 and $ 72.16 a barrel, respectively. The major exporting countries want to discuss their subsidy policy on Thursday. So far, they have raised the quotas by 400,000 barrels a day each month.
Bitcoin on the road to recovery
Similar to the stock market, bargain hunters also stocked up on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose by up to about each seven Percent up 57,642 respectively 4363 Dollar. On Friday they had collapsed by up to ten percent. Presumably some speculators needed cash to cushion the losses in the stock market.
Rise in yields on government bonds
The urge for higher risk was also noticeable in the prices and yields of government bonds. These bonds were sold, prices fell accordingly and yields rose.
For a ten-year federal bond, this value was meanwhile minus 0.303 percent on Monday. Last Friday it was meanwhile minus 0.344 percent.
The reaction was more pronounced in the case of US government bonds. On Friday, the yield on a ten-year government bond slipped down to 1.4748 percent, on Monday it was again 1.5551 percent in retail.
The Turkish lira continued to decline
The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had once again railed against rate hikes and increased pressure on the weakened national currency, the lira. “I have never advocated the increase in interest rates, I do not do it now and will not do it”, quoted the broadcaster NTV Erdogan. “I will never compromise on this issue.” He made the statements on his return flight from a state visit to Turkmenistan.
The lira, which had been badly shaken in the past few weeks, then fell by around four percent. Investors had to pay 12.85 lira for one dollar at times. In the past week, the lira crashed by up to 15 percent in one day. At times, up to 13.45 lira were paid in the markets for one dollar, more than ever before. Since the beginning of this year, the Turkish currency has devalued 45 percent.
Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.