Dusseldorf After just one mini-day of consolidation, the leading German index continued its brilliant rally at the start of the year on Wednesday. The Dax closed 1.2 percent higher on Wednesday than the day before at 14,948 points.
With today’s daily high in the form of 14,965 points, the stock market barometer reached a new high of the 3000-point rally since the end of September 2022. This means that the 15,000 point mark is increasingly coming into focus.
The desire to buy this Wednesday was a surprise. Investor sentiment is neutral, the news is rather negative. The past few days have been rather poor in news. News only came from the central banks, which want to stick to their restrictive monetary policy. This was confirmed by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday. In Europe, several national central bank governors spoke out in favor of further interest rate hikes.
All conditions that would have made us expect another day of consolidation. For the capital market expert Thomas Altmann, one can now have “concerns as to whether the mood on the trading floor is better than the current situation. And that would be dangerous.”
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Because there is a discrepancy in the market. The stockbrokers expect interest rates to be lower in twelve months than they are now. They probably derive their expectations from falling inflation rates. If this interest rate expectation has to be adjusted upwards, this could weigh on the stock markets.
But it can also be different and the US Federal Reserve agrees with the market expectations. According to FX analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann, there is no reason to put undue weight on the Fed’s view. “Even the Fed economists don’t have a crystal ball,” he says. “The track record of their previous forecasts makes that abundantly clear.”
What the Dax chart technology says
On the upper side, all eyes are now on the 15,000 point mark. A sustainable overcoming of this mark in the coming trading days would be a surprise in view of the high investment rate of investors. In the past few years, this area has repeatedly shown itself to be a directional and orientation mark.
On the downside, the mark of around 14,600 points is important in the short term, the upper limit of a four-week sideways phase from mid-November to mid-December.
Strategic investors should above all keep an eye on the 200-day moving average, the starting point for a dynamic continuation of the rally since the end of September. This average line is currently 13,559 points with a slight upward trend.
Look at important dates
A look at the data calendar for the coming days shows that there is no reason for buying desire this Wednesday.
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The US inflation rate for December will be released on Thursday. It could be the sixth consecutive month of declining annual rate. A month ago, the sharper-than-expected drop triggered an impressive rally. After recent gains, however, it’s unlikely to happen again.
And on Friday, the reporting season will really pick up speed with the first major US banks. “The reporting season has the potential to determine the stock market direction in the coming weeks,” says Altmann.
Look at the individual values
Bayer: In the new year, the group is increasingly being targeted by activist investors. Now the London hedge fund Bluebell Capital has also joined the Leverkusen team, reports the Bloomberg news agency, citing financial market insiders. Bluebell calls for a split in Leverkusen.
All of this is good for the share price. The entry of Inclusive Capital helped Bayer shares to rise by 4.8 percent on Tuesday. This Wednesday it goes up another 3.6 percent.
Bayer is constantly criticized by investors because of its low valuation. Since the $63.5 billion acquisition of Monsanto in 2018, the stock price has halved.
Shop pharmacy: The online pharmaceutical retailer achieved record sales last year. According to initial calculations, revenues rose by 13.6 percent to 1.2 billion euros. Sales of non-prescription drugs increased by 17.2 percent to 1.07 billion euros. The Management Board’s forecast had envisaged a range of sales growth for over-the-counter products of between 15 and 25 percent. The full balance sheet and guidance for 2023 is scheduled to be released on March 7th. The stock is experiencing a roller coaster ride. After an interim minus of three percent, the paper is back up 1.7 percent.
SMA Solar: The analysis house Jefferies commented positively on the papers. The strong order situation at the photovoltaic company is continuing and capacity utilization is quite high, wrote the expert Constantin Hesse. As a result, SMA Solar’s shares rose by 14.6 percent.
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