Dax briefly regained the 15,000 point mark – Teamviewer shares slipped by more than 20 percent

Dusseldorf The German stock market is on a roller coaster. Initially, the Dax slipped by more than 370 points to the daily low of 14,818 points, but then rose again above the mark of 15,000 points. After that, clear sales began again, causing the stock market barometer to slide to 14,924 digits. The Frankfurt benchmark is currently trading at 14,998 points, a decrease of 1.3 percent.

Should the index fall sustainably, i.e. at the daily closing price, below the mark of around 15,000 points, it could go further down. The technical analysts at HSBC Germany write of a “magical 15,000 mark”.

One fundamental reason weighs on the stock market: The fear of further rising interest rates is back. The higher than expected index level of the ISM purchasing managers index has shown that the better the US economy runs, the faster the US Federal Reserve can reduce its bond purchases and then turn the interest rate screw.

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Accordingly, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries climbed to over 1.57 percent on Wednesday, the highest level in more than three months. In the afternoon, however, this value was again 1.51 percent.

Germany, too, cannot decouple itself from the development of the US bond market. In this country, the yields on 30-year government bonds had also reached a new three-month high of 0.358 percent. The yield on ten-year Bunds had also reached minus 0.158 percent, the highest level since mid-May, and is currently again at minus 0.189 percent

This fear of interest rates is borne by the fear that energy prices will continue to rise. The oil price of the North Sea variety Brent reached a new three-year high of 83.13 dollars on Wednesday, after which the price slipped again. For Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, one thing is certain: “This mix of rising interest rates and high energy costs is a toxic cocktail for the stock market. “

Foreign investors are probably selling massively

It is reasonable to assume that foreign investors in particular are saying goodbye to the German market. Because the course of the euro / dollar currency pair shows that a lot of capital has recently flowed out. Since the beginning of September, the euro has slipped from $ 1.1877 to the current $ 1.1546. This morning, too, the euro is 0.4 percent in the red. It was interesting to observe that the lowest euro exchange rate on Wednesday and the daily low of the DAX were almost at the same time.

Because the investment ratio of international fund managers in European stocks was high. According to the latest Bank of America survey of more than 200 asset managers in mid-September, the number of investors who expect a longer equity rally in Europe has even increased – although assessments of economic developments have become more pessimistic.

What investors can learn from the two major setbacks

A look at the long-term development shows that there have been two major setbacks since the end of the corona crash: On the one hand, the correction in October last year, and on the other hand, the ongoing consolidation this month.

It is fascinating to see how such declines look alike at first glance. A good year ago, the German benchmark index tested the 11,450 point mark for three days in a row at the end of October. Then the year-end rally began – and a good ten months later the stock market barometer reached its still valid record high of 16,030 points.

In the past three days, a brand was tested again and found to be good, this time it was the area around 15,000 points. But that was not the starting shot for a year-end rally, but the start of a major consolidation, probably even a correction.

Nevertheless, the price setbacks differ mainly in their fundamental basis. On the one hand, there is the size: Last year, the minus from the high at the beginning of September to 11,450 points was a total of 15 percent. From minus ten percent, stockbrokers talk of a correction. There can be no question of that at the moment. Calculated from the record high, the current consolidation is only seven percent.

Much more important, however, is that last year’s sell-off was sustained, as can be seen from the data from the Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment. For several weeks there was panic among investors – time enough to sell enough shares.

At the moment, the Handelsblatt survey only indicated panic once: last Monday. Since panic is considered a contra-indicator, according to sentiment theory, rising prices can actually be derived from it. In the past three days, the Dax had also risen over 15,200 points. The countermovement turned out to be weaker than expected and is unlikely to have been sustainable, as evidenced by the start of trading on Wednesday, among other things.

In retrospect, the prognosis that the 15,000 point mark would not be able to hold was correct. But there was no relief rally in the meantime.

Exchange history is rarely repeated to the same extent, but comparing numbers is always helpful. The Dax would have reached the status of a correction at 14,427 points. 15 percent minus, as in October last year, would have been reached at 13,625 meters. Seen in this light, the leading index still has a lot of room for improvement.

Look at the individual values

Bayer: Only a few stocks on the German stock market were able to escape the general downward trend. Bayer shares were most recently up 0.7 percent. In the year-long dispute over the allegedly carcinogenic weed killer glyphosate, the group achieved a legal victory in the USA for the first time. “Blaming Bayer seems to be no longer child’s play,” said one trader. Even if it is not a great victory, at least it is a success that has a positive effect.

Deutsche Telekom: The US investment bank Goldman Sachs threw a multi-billion dollar package of Deutsche Telekom shares onto the market overnight. The 90 million shares valued at 1.58 billion euros are part of a complex transaction with the Japanese technology investor Softbank, who only bought the Bonn-based telecommunications giant at the beginning of September.

Goldman Sachs brought the shares, which make up 1.8 percent of Telekom’s share capital, at a price of EUR 16.95 with institutional investors. That is a discount of 3.7 percent on the Xetra closing price of the T-share on Tuesday. Today, Wednesday, the Telekom paper is five percent lower.

Nemetschek: Increasing skepticism among analysts with regard to further growth dynamics has slowed the construction software provider’s share. The papers fell on Wednesday by up to 4.5 percent to a four-week low of 83.42 euros and temporarily held the red lantern in the MDax small-cap index.

The analysts from Deutsche Bank and Stifel lowered the rating for Nemetschek to “Hold” from “Buy”. For the third quarter, both expect good or solid figures. However, the growth rate of the second quarter will probably not be able to be maintained, it said at Deutsche Bank. Stifel expects that the zenith for the specialist in construction and planning software will be reached in 2021. The stocks have limited upside potential in the short term. They have increased by around 45 percent since the beginning of the year.

Teamviewer: The software company is lowering its annual outlook after weaker than expected preliminary quarterly figures. The share slipped more than 25 percent and, at EUR 18.36, is well below the IPO price of EUR 26.25 set at the end of September 2019.

Grenke: The steep decline in shares from Tuesday continues today, Wednesday, with minus eight percent. The day before, the IT leasing provider had lowered its forecast for new business after a slump in the third quarter. Some analysts reacted to this on Wednesday with negative comments and gradations.

What the Dax chart technology says

For three months, the Dax has moved between 16,000 points on the top and around 15,000 points on the bottom. Christian Henke, technical analyst at online broker IG Markets, sees initial support after a sustained break in this mark at 14,921 points. If the closing price is below this mark, a test of the next line of defense should be expected at around 14,800 points. The next support would not be found until 14,235 meters.

Click here to go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.

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