Stockholm Petteri Orpo’s conservative National Coalition Party came out on top with 20.8 percent of the vote, followed by the right-wing populist party The Finns, which achieved 20.1 percent, its best result ever. This means that Finland is clearly sliding to the right politically. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats were only the third strongest party with 19.9 percent. Two of Marin’s coalition partners, the Left Party and the Greens, suffered heavy losses. This rules out a continuation of their red-green coalition.
Instead, there are many indications of a coalition between the National Coalition Party and The Finns party. Theoretically, a grand coalition of conservatives and social democrats is also possible. Both alliances need at least one other party for their own majority. Minority governments, unlike the other Nordic countries, have no tradition in Finland. Complicated coalition negotiations are generally expected.
Marin admitted her election defeat late on Sunday evening. “We still did well,” she explained to supporters. “That’s how democracy is”. However, the election result will not have been a big surprise for you, because all forecasts before the elections saw a very close race between the three largest parties.
Prime Minister Sanna Marin has lost re-election.
(Photo: dpa)
In Finland it is traditional that the party with the most votes gets the mandate to form a government. Petteri Orpo, the chairman of the National Coalition Party, then proclaimed himself the winner of the election. “Our political goal was to get the country back on track, and that’s what the voters wanted.” He spoke of “a great victory” and announced on the night of the election that he would initiate talks with possible coalition partners immediately.
In all likelihood, 53-year-old Orpo will be Finland’s next head of government. He has previous government experience, having previously served as Minister of Agriculture, Minister of the Interior and Minister of Finance. He was also Deputy Prime Minister from mid-2017 to 2019. He has led the National Coalition Party since 2016.
Orpo: Tax breaks and spending cuts
During the election campaign, Orpo repeatedly emphasized the need to bring Finland’s public finances back into balance. During the red-green coalition of Marin, the national debt rose to 144 billion euros, he accused the government. Orpo wants to bring the public debt back into balance with tax breaks and simultaneous spending cuts of around nine billion euros.
Marin’s Social Democrats, on the other hand, advocate tax increases for higher earners and reject cuts in the social sector. “Marin’s economic and fiscal policy differs significantly from the conservatives’ program,” says politics professor Kimmo Grönlund from Åbo Academy in Turku. However, he does not want to completely rule out a coalition between the two parties. “Nothing is impossible in Finland, we have seen in the past that basically everyone can do it with everyone”.
The candidates at a glance: Sanna Marin, Petteri Orpo and Riikka Purra (from left).
(Photo: Bloomberg)
For the right-wing populist party The Finns with their top candidate Riikka Purra, the election result is a huge success. The party, which is the only party that advocates a more restrictive immigration policy, cuts in the development aid budget and wants to see fewer restrictions on climate policy, has achieved the best result in its history.
The 45-year-old Purra posted her messages on TikTok almost every day. With videos and simple language, she has apparently caught the spirit of the times, even among young voters. The EU-skeptical attitude of the party is likely to be problematic in coalition negotiations.
Marin internationally highly regarded
The previous head of government, Marin, enjoys a high reputation internationally for her straightforward statements on the Ukraine war and her corona policy. In her home country, on the other hand, she was controversial, especially among older voters, because of her youthful, bold style and her large social media presence. Nevertheless, she was the most popular party leader.
“No one else even comes close to their approval ratings,” says political scientist Grönlund. Her party has also benefited from the popularity of the 37-year-old. “Without them, the Social Democrats might have gotten only 16 percent of the vote instead of the current 20 percent,” said Greenland.
For Marin, losing the election is the biggest political defeat to date. The youngest head of government in the world when she took office in 2019 had to deal with the fight against the corona pandemic almost immediately after taking over government power. Since last year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has dominated the agenda. Finland shares a 1,300 km border with Russia. The geographic proximity to the aggressor led to a complete reversal of the country’s policy of neutrality, which it had pursued for decades. Under Marin’s leadership, the country initiated the NATO accession process.
>> Read here: Russia targets Scandinavia – Finland responds with drastic countermeasures
It was unthinkable a good year ago, but now that the last NATO country, Turkey, has given its approval, Finland’s membership in the NATO military alliance is a fact: all that’s left is the ceremonial signing of the application for membership.
Finland will become a member of the North Atlantic Defense Alliance as early as this month. Marin has successfully sworn her compatriots to the task of non-alignment – more than 80 percent of Finns are in favor of NATO membership – but the accession instrument is now signed by her successor. During the election campaign, security policy and in particular the desired NATO membership played only a subordinate role. The reason: All parties agree on this issue.
According to most observers, the coalition negotiations will be difficult. Should Orpo make a coalition offer to The Finns party, the future immigration policy in particular should cause discussions. Because apart from the right-wing populist party, everyone else wants to ease the immigration rules because of a constantly aging society.
It is uncertain whether The Finns party will reach a compromise despite the major demographic problems. Another demand by right-wing populists has been exit from the EU. But this demand was not repeated during the election campaign. Probably also because the vast majority of voters are in favor of remaining in the community.
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