Imagine if Europe had no way of producing its own petrol, heating oil or naphtha for the chemical industry. The continent lacked the refinery capacity to produce the urgently needed energy sources from crude oil imports and thus to guarantee a minimum level of security of supply.
Instead, the majority would come from a single producer, for example from Russia. Europe would be even more restricted than it already is in reacting to foreign policy aggressions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The example may sound hypothetical. But Europe is on the verge of entering into a comparable dependency. For critical raw materials for the energy transition, the continent may be more dependent on China in the future than it needs gas and oil from Russia today.
If politics and business are serious about the energy transition, they must now negotiate partnerships and invest to secure the supply of raw materials.
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