“China’s military likely to simulate attack on Taiwan”

Tokyo China wants to end four days of martial threats against neighboring Taiwan on Sunday. The scope of the maneuver, which began Wednesday shortly after the departure of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was unprecedented.

First, ships crossed the middle line in the Taiwan Strait – the strait between the two countries is considered the unofficial red line. Then 11 missiles hit six previously announced stretches of sea around the island, some just a few kilometers off Taiwan’s coast. And that was just the beginning.

After that, drones entered the airspace of small Taiwanese islands that lie within sight of China’s coast. In addition, the People’s Liberation Army deployed dozens of warships and fighter planes. A considerable number even passed the center line and approached the island, which the communist leadership sees as part of the People’s Republic and wants to bring into the Reich by force if necessary.

The situation had not escalated at the time of going to press, but it was explosive. Taiwan’s military deployed missile defense systems and responded with a game of cat-and-mouse in the air and at sea. Their own planes and warships tried to push the Chinese away and often came very close to each other.

In the first evaluation, Taiwan’s defense ministry took the war game very seriously: “China’s People’s Liberation Army is probably simulating an attack on Taiwan,” the military wrote in a press statement on Sunday. Other experts see the maneuver primarily as a warning to the United States, Taiwan and the world that China could block the important chip supplier’s sea and air connections if Beijing feels provoked again. The six announced maneuver areas are already symbolically surrounding the island.

>> Read here: Ex-top diplomat on Taiwan crisis: “Xi’s message to Biden is: Don’t do that again!”

The thrust of the maneuvers came as no surprise. The communist leadership had expressly announced sharp reactions to the visit of the American politician Pelosi, who is third in the US political power hierarchy. Because China saw the visit as a violation of the one-China policy, according to which there is only one China.

Chan: The Chinese maneuvers are symbolic

However, Washington stressed that it had not changed policy. It is true that the USA only recognizes the People’s Republic diplomatically and not the smaller Republic of China on Taiwan, which is home to around 23 million people. However, after the rapprochement with the communists in 1970, the USA promised their protégé in the Taiwan Relations Act that they would support the island’s defense, but without openly promising military intervention.

However, many military analysts did not expect the aggressiveness of the war games. One is Eric Chan, a US Air Force strategist and researcher at the Global Taiwan Institute, a think tank in the US. “I’m a bit surprised at the intensity of the manoeuvres,” he says.

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There are three possible paths for such cases: conservative and risk-avoiding, moderate or risk-taking, explains the strategist. After the verbal saber-rattling in the People’s Republic, in which a well-known commentator had philosophized about the downing of Pelosi’s plane, he had already expected that party and state leader Xi Jinping would tend to take risks. “But the maneuvers go 20 to 30 percent beyond what I had imagined.”

He is concerned, but believes that Xi is not yet seeking conflict with the United States with the maneuvers. China’s approach is not extremely risky. According to a colleague of Chan’s, the People’s Liberation Army still fails to meet two of eight criteria for a deterrent action in peacetime: the creation of a war-like atmosphere and demonstrative strikes. So far, all rockets have hit the water.

So far, the maneuvers have been primarily symbolic, says Chan. Beijing wants to demonstrate the ability of its People’s Liberation Army to carry out complex actions. At the same time, party leader Xi is keeping open the possibility of taking even tougher action against Taiwan.

Amanda Hsiao from the International Crisis Group, which is currently in Taiwan, also sees no end to the escalation. “The exercises represent a clear escalation compared to the last Taiwan crisis in 1995 and 1996 and all of China’s military actions that we have seen in recent years,” says the China expert of the think tank, whose headquarters are in Brussels. “As the previous crisis dragged on for nine months and involved multiple maneuvers, it’s possible we will see more drills.”

China sends signs to Japan and South Korea

Hsiao also believes Beijing will use Pelosi’s visit to expand China’s military presence in the Taiwan Strait. “Chinese aircraft and warships are likely to cross the center line in the Taiwan Strait more frequently in the future – and not just during announced maneuvers.”

At the same time, China is already sending signals to Japan and South Korea: Some of the Chinese missiles have landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone around some of the empire’s islands there. Then on Friday, Japan’s air force tracked two Chinese drones flying to maneuver areas between Japanese islands in the region. In addition, China will conduct live ammunition target practice in the Yellow Sea, between China and South Korea, from August 6 to 15.

Many experts agree on one thing: China’s ultimate goal is incorporation, either peacefully through Taiwan’s self-abandonment or forced through war. Beijing itself has said so repeatedly. Only the time frame is puzzling.

>> Read here: Taiwan fires flares at Chinese drones

Former US National Security Advisor HR McMaster said last week: “I believe the period of maximum danger is between 2024 and 2026.” The former Australian Prime Minister and current Asia Society chair puts it more in the late 20s or early 30s .

More: “This is the test run for emergencies” – Asia experts warn of fatal chain reactions