China’s exports recovered surprisingly well in May – but a risk remains

Scene from Wuhan.

Firmly in the grip of Corona.

(Photo: Getty Images)

Beijing After a big slump in April, Chinese exports recovered significantly in May. As the Chinese customs authority announced on Thursday, exports from the People’s Republic increased by 16.9 percent compared to the previous year. The growth exceeded the expectations of analysts, who had expected an average of eight percent.

In April, the People’s Republic’s exports had fallen sharply and had increased by only 3.9 percent compared to the same period last year – the lowest growth rate in two years.

Imports also recovered slightly in May according to the latest data. Imports rose by at least 4.1 percent year-on-year – they had stagnated in April.

But despite the slight recovery, the draconian restrictions imposed by the central and local governments to contain the pandemic continue to weigh on the second largest economy in the world. Across China, entire cities, neighborhoods or apartment blocks have been quarantined for weeks since the outbreak of the highly contagious omicron variant earlier this year.

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In these cases, the residents are not allowed to leave their homes, for many this means that they cannot work during this time and have no income. The purchasing manager indices (PMI) for manufacturing and the service sector were correspondingly poor in May. They were again below 50, indicating a deteriorating mood.

The most dramatic thing was the complete lockdown of the economic metropolis of Shanghai, where 25 million people were not allowed to leave their homes for over two months. Although the complete lockdown was lifted at the beginning of June, residential complexes and districts in the city are still closed off again and again.

The next curfew is imminent on Saturday

According to media reports, the 2.65 million inhabitants of a district in Shanghai will again be subject to a curfew on Saturday. So far it is only planned for one day, but it is unclear whether the lockdown will be extended. Other cities like Beijing are also affected by the restrictions.

“Companies are already preparing with security concepts that there could be another lockdown,” Bettina Schön-Behanzin, Vice President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, told the Handelsblatt after the city-wide lockdown in Shanghai was lifted. “It’s like the sword of Damocles — you never know when the cases will blow up again and the city and businesses will go into lockdown again.”

In addition to the disruption to production due to a shortage of employees or the shutdown of plants in the name of pandemic prevention, companies in China are primarily suffering from the severe disruption to transport routes. In order to cross provincial or city borders, truck drivers often have to present corona tests and are not allowed to leave their driver’s cab on the way to their destination. Stickers on the doors of trucks bear witness to the restrictions. The checks cost a lot of time and effort.

In Shanghai, even after the opening, truck traffic is still at a very low level. As an analysis by the Bloomberg news agency shows, truck traffic was only about a third of the 2019 average. Activity at the world’s largest port in Shanghai is also still at a lower level than before the metropolis was locked down.

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