At the end of July I calculated for the BILD readers that we would have an incidence of 850 today if Delta had continued to spread as quickly as it did at the end of July.
Today the incidence is 70. A wrong calculation? Absurd horror forecast? No!
Responsible politicians or scientists in the Corona crisis repeatedly reap bitter criticism because the models and scenarios do not “come true”. In an enlightened country, however, these calculations are almost there to prevent it from happening!
The fact is: In view of the strong infection dynamics at the end of July, the federal and state governments met for an early meeting and initiated a massive change in behavior through the nationwide introduction of the 3G rules and, in some cases, 2G options.
That’s exactly what I asked for in the interview at the time – and that’s why models and scenarios are not a (weather) forecast that tries to predict what will inevitably come, but a risk analysis of what could happen if wrong or no action is taken.
Therefore: The corona numbers have not fallen for no reason, but because politics and society have acted. And the prior assessment of the risk is necessary in order to be able to correctly assess which measures are necessary and appropriate to avert them!
It is therefore wrong and dangerous to refer to models and scenarios that describe the conditions under which a high level of infection could arise as “scaremongering”.
Citizens and political decision-makers need well-founded analyzes this autumn and winter so that we can act prudently and Germany can continue to get through the crisis well.