Union and SPD are preparing a significant financial initiative aimed at defense and infrastructure, seeking quick action before a new coalition forms. However, achieving the necessary two-thirds majority in the Bundestag presents challenges, with potential opposition from the Left Party and AfD. Proposed amendments to the Basic Law are set for discussion in March, but internal divisions and external pressures complicate the process. Legal challenges from opposition parties regarding the Bundestag’s authority to convene also loom, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the financial package.
The Union and SPD are gearing up to tackle the evolving global landscape with a substantial financial package, aiming for swift action even before a black-red coalition is established. However, securing the required majorities poses a significant challenge, and potential legal disputes loom on the horizon.
In a bid to expedite their debt-financed billion-euro initiative for defense and infrastructure, the Union and SPD plan to summon the current Bundestag. This strategy is driven by the realization that the seat distribution in the upcoming parliament complicates the possibility of achieving a two-thirds majority, especially with potential opposition from the Left Party and AfD.
The proposed amendments to the Basic Law are scheduled for introduction in the plenary session on March 13, with a vote in the Bundestag set for March 18. Nonetheless, even within the existing parliamentary structure, the journey ahead is fraught with obstacles. Here’s a closer look at the challenges and possible pitfalls:
The Unstable Majority
To move forward, both the proposed special fund for infrastructure, totaling 500 billion euros, and the defense policy exemptions from the debt brake require a two-thirds majority, necessitating an amendment to the Basic Law. Currently, the Union and SPD hold 403 seats in the old Bundestag, while the required majority stands at 489 votes. This means their success hinges on garnering support from the Greens (117 seats) or the FDP (90 seats).
The FDP is open to discussing defense matters but remains opposed to special debts. Prior to the election, the Liberals firmly rejected any relaxation of debt regulations. Meanwhile, the Greens have kept their position ambiguous. Both parties have criticized the Union for failing to uphold election promises and for reversing their own stances.
Despite the Greens emphasizing their willingness to take responsibility in challenging times, discontent within their ranks remains high. Robert Habeck, who faced criticism as Minister of Economics, initially proposed the debt-financed special fund over a year ago but was unsuccessful. Additionally, the CDU and CSU have conducted a rigorous election campaign against the Greens, continuing their criticisms post-election.
The Greens will need to adapt to their new responsibilities, with Habeck and Baerbock stepping back. Even Schleswig-Holstein’s Prime Minister, Daniel Günther (CDU), has cautioned CSU leader Markus Söder to show respect towards the Greens as they navigate their governmental responsibilities. Söder, on the other hand, has claimed that the Greens’ exclusion from the new federal government is a significant victory for the CSU, even making dismissive remarks towards outgoing Minister Habeck.
However, the Union and SPD must also ensure unity within their factions. Reports indicate that not all members of the Union agree with the new debt strategy, especially considering that such substantial debts were ruled out just weeks ago. The exploratory discussions have resulted in notable concessions from the Union to the SPD concerning the debt brake. While it remains unclear what concessions the Social Democrats have secured in return, it appears unlikely that their faction would allow Friedrich Merz’s initiative to fail, as this would undermine their credibility before even assuming the Chancellorship.
The Bundesrat’s Essential Approval
If the Bundestag endorses the proposed amendments to the Basic Law, the Bundesrat must also approve them by March 21. Achieving a two-thirds majority in the Bundesrat is complex, as it requires 46 out of a total of 69 votes. The states are set to receive 100 billion euros from the special fund and will be permitted to incur up to 0.35 percent of their economic output in new debts annually, a privilege previously exclusive to the federal government.
Typically, if state coalitions cannot reach a consensus, the state governments must abstain from voting in the Bundesrat. Abstentions are counted as votes against the proposal. If voting within a state is inconsistent, that state’s vote becomes invalid.
Notably, the dynamics in Bavaria could pose a significant challenge, as Söder governs alongside the Free Voters (FW). Bavaria holds enough votes to potentially determine the majority outcome. Should the Free Voters obstruct the proposal, the billion-euro initiative could falter, or the Bavarian coalition may face internal strife. FW leader Hubert Aiwanger has previously expressed skepticism about the Union and SPD’s plans, criticizing them for opting to cover up structural economic issues with debt rather than addressing them directly.
Should complications arise with the Greens or Free Voters, other parties such as the Left, BSW, and FDP, involved in various state governments, may further complicate the search for a majority. The Left could influence decisions in Bremen and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the FDP holds sway in Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt. The BSW is also significant in Thuringia, Brandenburg, and has a role in the minority government in Saxony.
Potential Legal Challenges Ahead
Both the Left and AfD are contemplating legal action before the Federal Constitutional Court regarding the financial package. The AfD faction has already reached out to Bundestag President Bärbel Bas with a legal letter, questioning the legitimacy of convening the Bundestag for extraordinary sessions under its previous composition, especially since the financial decisions do not pertain to an emergency situation.
While the Bundestag can indeed make decisions after an election until the new Bundestag is constituted on March 25, this practice is viewed as unusual and raises democratic concerns, though it is likely constitutionally valid.
Former President of the Federal Constitutional Court, Hans-Jürgen Papier, previously noted that…