Can Turkey replace Russia in gas?

Among them is a country that has not yet produced any natural gas of its own, but imports quite a lot and could forward it to the West: Turkey. The country is seen as one of the key countries when it comes to Europe’s future gas supply. In an analysis, the Turkey office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung comes to the conclusion: “The expansion of the southern gas corridor and the use of Turkey as a strategic energy hub with access to gas deposits in the Caspian Sea and eastern Mediterranean can offer a real alternative. “

But until then, some tough questions need to be answered. One of them is: Can Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan be trusted? Turkey would actually be an alternative, especially for Italy and the Balkan countries. Most of the infrastructure already exists, and there is even a largely unused pipeline between Bulgaria and Turkey. But there are a few hurdles – and the danger of a new dependency that nobody in Europe wants.

Turkey is struggling with economic problems itself

According to official figures, Turkey imported a total of 47 billion cubic meters of gas last year. 26.6 billion cubic meters of this came from Russia via Gazprom, which corresponds to around 45 percent of the total gas consumed in Turkey. Another 16 percent of Turkey’s needs were met from Iran. That’s almost two-thirds of Turkey’s gas imports. At the same time, in 2020 and 2021, about half of the gas that entered Turkey from Russia via the Turkstream pipeline continued to flow to Europe.

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That is why politicians and entrepreneurs in Anatolia have been dreaming of functioning as a European gas hub for years. Erdogan’s government is working on it accordingly – with investments running into the billions and an initial foreign policy geared towards good relations with Turkey’s neighboring countries.

>> Read also: Europe’s hope: 510 billion cubic meters of gas are stored south of Cyprus

In the meantime, Turkey could actually be transporting natural gas from various parts of the Middle East to Europe. A project to distribute European gas imports via Turkey is already underway: it is known as the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). Natural gas is mainly brought from the Caspian Sea to Italy via this pipeline.

The technical preparations for importing gas from northern Iraq are already in place, and Turkey has even built a pipeline to the Iraqi border. However, the central government in Baghdad has so far resisted allowing the autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq to conclude its own contracts with foreign companies.

Israeli gas could also flow to the EU countries via Turkey. Israel and Turkey are getting closer again after a decade of diplomatic disputes. Experts estimate that within two to three years the conditions could be created for transporting Israeli gas from the Mediterranean fields of Leviathan and Tamar to Turkey and from there to Europe – for example via the existing Trans-Anatolian pipeline, provided its capacity is expanded.

Turkey would therefore be suitable as a possible middleman for Europe, collecting natural gas from different regions and forwarding it to the west. If there weren’t various risks.

It’s about treaties, technical issues and foreign policy conflicts

First of all, the transit of gas from one country to another country through an intermediary is a complex legal endeavour. “In addition to the technical requirements, this requires above all multilateral agreements and, under certain circumstances, changes to the law,” Turkish energy analyst Akif Aktürk explained to the Turkish media. Turkey would also need larger gas depots than it currently has. There is currently a problem with the expansion of a storage facility – there may be a lack of money.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Vladimir Putin

A big unknown in the energy crisis: how dependent is Turkey on Russia?

(Photo: via REUTERS)

There are also foreign policy conflicts. There is a largely unused pipeline between Turkey and Greece and another to Bulgaria, which could be used to supply gas to Southeast Europe in particular. On the one hand, however, the pipelines run through the industrial heart of Turkey in the north-west of the country and have so far supplied Istanbul and the surrounding cities with natural gas, especially in winter.

>> Read also: That’s how dependent Gazprom is on Europe

On the other hand, Ankara and Athens are currently back in the clinch over sea borders and further natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean – with the usual political taunts. In addition, there will be elections in both countries next year. Not too much understanding on the subject of gas is therefore to be expected.

Finally, there is Turkey’s stance on the Ukraine war. This is probably where the biggest problems lie. Because the country supplies highly efficient drones to Ukraine. At the same time, Ankara has not imposed sanctions on Russia. Instead, the Turkish government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to take on an intermediary position and has already arranged the grain deal between the two warring parties.

This position could get Erdogan into trouble if he wants to supply Europe with transit gas in the future. You noticed that at the end of April. At that time, the Kremlin turned off the gas in Bulgaria.

In the capital Sofia, the government immediately looked for alternatives and found them in neighboring Turkey. They were generally helpful there. But because Ankara wants to maintain neutrality towards Russia, a geopolitical conflict arose: Russia declared Bulgaria an “unfriendly state” – since then nothing has been heard of Turkey as an alternative supplier for Bulgarian gas imports.

Turkey shows itself to be dependent on Russia and Iran

And another incident shows how shaky Turkey would be as a gas supplier: In May, the Russian-Turkish Bluestream pipeline in the Black Sea, through which Turkey routes 60 percent of its Russian gas imports into the country, was closed. The Russians announced this just two days earlier, and the state-owned company Gazprom explained the closure as part of maintenance work.

Apparently, the closure had other reasons – and did not miss its target: On the same evening, Turkey rejected Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership, which the Russians had criticized.

>> See also a video: Finland and Sweden join NATO: Scholz hopes for quick approval from Turkey

There are plenty of examples that show Turkey’s sensitive position. In January of this year, Iran suddenly cut lines to Turkey, and as in the case of Russia, without much warning. Both governments are at odds on some issues, such as the war in Syria, but also on the issue of refugees.

The government in Tehran said the unusually low temperatures had boosted gas consumption in domestic households. As a result, less can be exported. To this day, it is not clear whether this was true.

In any case, Turkey, suffering from a cold snap at the time, was hit by the supply interruption like a blow. Industrial companies across the country had to interrupt production for three days. This also includes steel mills, whose sensitive machines have to be serviced for weeks after each interruption. “German companies are looking at the announced power cuts with great concern,” Thilo Pahl, Managing Director of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, told the Handelsblatt at the time.

And already in 2014, the year of the annexation of Crimea by the Russians, the Kremlin suddenly stopped the flow of gas to Turkey. Apparently also to achieve political goals. A month later the lines were open again. Meanwhile, the Turkish government had agreed to build the Turkstream pipeline, which would export Russian gas to Europe via Turkey.

More: Why the EU doesn’t want a dispute with Erdogan.

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