The Socialist Party’s national bureau decided to abstain from voting on a censure motion against François Bayrou’s government, which is set to use the 49.3 procedure for budget approval. This move follows the Barnier government’s collapse and allows Bayrou to maintain his position. Opposition parties plan to challenge the budgets, but if the PS adheres to its stance, censure motions may fail. Internal divisions within the PS reflect varying opinions on the necessity of a budget versus calls for censure.
The PS’s Strategic Decision on Censure
The Socialist Party (PS) has reached a pivotal decision: during a meeting on Monday, the national bureau chose to abstain from voting on the censure motion aimed at François Bayrou’s government. This move comes as the government prepares to utilize its first 49.3 procedure regarding the state and social security budgets, allowing these crucial texts to pass without a formal vote.
Following the recent downfall of the Barnier government, François Bayrou appears to be in a favorable position to maintain his role at Matignon. This is despite the National Rally’s intent to support the censure. A compromise document concerning the state budget, crafted by a mixed commission of 14 deputies and senators, is set for examination at 4 PM.
Implications of the PS’s Abstention
All opposition deputies voiced their dissent during the mixed commission’s session, which has left Prime Minister Bayrou with little option but to invoke the government’s responsibility due to the lack of a majority in the Assembly. “A nation like ours cannot function without a budget,” emphasized Bayrou in La Tribune Dimanche. Matignon confirmed that the Prime Minister is prepared to “deploy the constitutional weapon” on two occasions starting Monday for the two budgets.
A government source indicated that action on the state budget will likely occur swiftly, just before the assembly considers a preliminary rejection motion from LFI. Additionally, discussions surrounding the first segment of the social security budget, which is divided into three parts, are anticipated to be brief. Mr. Bayrou may also utilize the 49.3 procedure on this budget text twice this week, with hopes for a smooth passage in the Senate around February 17-18.
The PS has voiced its stance against censure motions targeting François Bayrou concerning the state and social security budgets. A significant number of socialist deputies are expected to align with this decision. This could incite backlash from La France Insoumise (LFI), which has been vocal about pursuing a censure motion regarding the state budget, and will also propose one for the social security budget.
These motions could be reviewed starting Wednesday in the National Assembly and may gain support from the Communist Party and environmentalists. However, if all PS deputies adhere to the national bureau’s decision, the censure cannot be enacted mathematically.
LFI Finance Committee President Eric Coquerel remarked, “An opponent who abstains from voting essentially shifts to supporting the budget and, by extension, the government.” Meanwhile, Ugo Bernalicis expressed his frustrations on social media, labeling the PS as “traitors.” Although Boris Vallaud, leader of the socialist deputies, acknowledged that while the PS has “extracted concessions” on the state budget, they “remain largely insufficient,” he also recognized the necessity for a budget to address the concerns of businesses and local authorities.
Within the PS, differing opinions are emerging, with some members advocating against leaving the country without a budget, as former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin suggests, while others push for censure, particularly over comments made by Mr. Bayrou regarding migration, a sensitive topic associated with the far-right.
The PS is also set to introduce its own motion of censure in response to Bayrou’s remarks, although its success is uncertain, especially without support from the National Rally (RN). “They understand that it will be ineffective,” Coquerel commented.
On Monday, proponents of non-censure gained more attention. Jérôme Guedj commented in Les Échos that while the social security budget may not align with leftist principles, it is “certainly more acceptable than the Barnier budget.” Meanwhile, the government has ruled out further concessions on the state budget. Government spokesperson Sophie Primas confirmed on France 2 that the text submitted through the 49.3 procedure will be the one produced by the mixed commission, and discussions about an increase in the minimum wage are not currently on the table, according to Labor Minister Catherine Vautrin.
The RN, essential for any censure motion’s success, was set to make a decision on Monday but has postponed its meeting until Wednesday afternoon. RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy expressed that he finds the proposed budget “worse than having no budget at all,” and he supports a censure motion. Ultimately, the decision will rest with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.