For the European Union, the matter is clear: it is an attempt at blackmail by the Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko, about state-controlled human trafficking. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen speaks of a “hybrid attack”. This aggression should not go unanswered.
What is Brussels planning? What are the goals of the Polish government? How does Moscow calculate? The most important questions and answers about the refugee crisis:
As this is a deliberate attempt to destabilize the EU, Europe must show determination. Talks about sanctions are already underway, and the EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation next Monday. In addition, the EU wants to use its diplomatic contacts to prevent flights with which the refugees are brought to Minsk. Istanbul, Damascus and Dubai are the main hubs. The EU commissioner responsible for migration, Margaritis Schinas, is planning a trip to the region.
What sanctions are under discussion?
The EU has already imposed extensive sanctions on Belarus to punish the regime for fraudulent elections and the crackdown on the democracy movement. Most recently, the measures were tightened in the summer when the Belarusian regime forced a Ryanair scheduled jet to land and kidnapped a dissident. At that time, the EU also agreed to withdraw landing and overflight rights from the Belarusian state airline Belavia.
The Europeans now want to build on this. Belavia mainly leases its machines from Irish companies. The EU states want to stop this business. Ireland was hesitant at first and now apparently supports the move. An indication of how serious the governments are in taking decisive action against Lukashenko.
How exactly does the sanction procedure work?
A total of 166 regime supporters are already on the European sanctions lists, including Lukashenko himself and his son. In the future there should be even more. In a first step, the legal basis for the sanctions, the so-called sanction regime, must be expanded to include the offense of people smuggling. There is already an agreement on this at the working level, the EU ambassadors should discuss this on Wednesday and the foreign ministers will decide on the whole thing on Monday.
Only then do the actual decisions about which companies and people get on the sanctions list follow. It can still take weeks for a decision to be made. There are already concrete proposals from the EU Parliament. “We should not only sanction those responsible, but also in the hierarchy below,” says Michael Gahler, foreign policy spokesman for the Christian Democratic EPP group in the European Parliament. The point is to make it clear: “Anyone who drives refugees to the border shouldn’t go shopping in Warsaw at the weekend.”
What are the possibilities?
Another idea is to sanction airlines from third countries that can be used for Lukashenko’s smuggling flights. With this threat, the EU wants to increase the pressure on airlines such as Turkish Airlines or Emirates, as many planes from Istanbul and Dubai land in Minsk.
How does Poland react?
The Polish government wants to expand border protection and has imposed emergency law along the border. Nobody has access. The images that are made public are controlled by the state. “Poland basically does what it wants,” criticizes Gahler. “You can only get an objective overview of the situation if Frontex were active there.”
The crisis bursts in the middle of the conflict with Brussels over the erosion of the Polish rule of law. There is great mistrust on both sides. Poland is demanding 350 million euros for multi-row fences and meter-high barbed wire barriers – but EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has rejected this.
According to Gahler, this is mainly due to Poland’s lack of willingness to cooperate. “The EU has already financed such projects. But it is not possible for Poland to say: We take money from the EU for border security, but do not show what we do with it. “
What role does Moscow play?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is Lukashenko’s most important ally – more precisely: a kind of life insurance. “Without Russia’s support, the Belarusian regime would have collapsed long ago,” says Janis Kluge, Russia expert at the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation.
The Kremlin wants to prevent the protest movement in Belarus from gaining new hope and possibly spilling over to Russia. The showdown at the border was in Moscow, so Russia let Lukashenko do it: “From a Russian point of view, the refugee crisis exposes the double standards of the West,” says Kluge.
More: Comment: Instead of violent defense attempts – How the EU could solve its migration problem.