According to Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Bitcoin (BTC), It could face a tough quarter as the Fed continues to reduce its monetary stimulus amid the banking crisis.
McGlone Evaluates FED’s Moves and Bitcoin
McGlone said in a tweet that Bitcoin is trading higher than its 200-day moving average, which shows it is vulnerable to a correction if the economic trend slows down.
McGlone argued that the Fed’s tightening policy is a significant pressure factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin and equities, and that the central bank’s reluctance to cut interest rates despite the banking crisis may increase the risk of a rebound in a bear market.
He added that Bitcoin is a global leading indicator and risk asset that is traded 24/7, and that the sharpest rallies typically occur in bear markets.
McGlone explained his views on BTC’s second quarter performance as follows:
“Our chart shows that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index have the highest levels since 2021 relative to their 200-day moving averages. The sharpest rallies often occur in bear markets and Bitcoin being a global leading indicator and risk asset traded 24/7 could have negative results in the second quarter.”
The analyst’s tweet included a chart showing the correlation between Bitcoin, the Nasdaq 100, and one-year Federal fund futures (FF13) reflecting market expectations for future interest rate changes.
Rates too low for too long then going up too fast and still rising – A #Bloomberg top story April 7:
“US Bank Lending Slumps by Most on Record in Final Weeks of March”
What stops this? Not higher rates.
Bitcoin hanging in at about $28,000 pic.twitter.com/TOcaLZo9Ux
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 8, 2023
McGlone suggested that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 jumped with FF13 because the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements that he would not cut rates any time soon meant a volatile sea for risk assets.
*Not investment advice.
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