Biden warns Putin of the enormous economic consequences of invading Ukraine

Brussels, Berlin US President Joe Biden has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of enormous damage to the Russian economy in the event of an invasion of neighboring Ukraine. This was announced by the White House after a two-hour video conversation between the two heads of state.

Biden made it clear that “the US and our allies would react with strong economic and other measures in the event of a military escalation”. Biden was connected from Washington, Putin took part in the conversation from Sochi on the Black Sea.

After his conversation with Putin, Biden wanted to consult with the outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, the French President Emmanuel Macron, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. In a conversation the day before, the allies had already agreed to “stay in close contact with one another in order to develop a coordinated and comprehensive approach to responding to Russia’s military rearmament at the borders of Ukraine”.

The US is thinking, among other things, of cutting off Russia from the Swift international payment system in the event of a military intervention. According to other media reports, the US could make it difficult for investors to invest in Russian government bonds in the secondary market.

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The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which has already been built, is also up for grabs. “Nord Stream 2 would then no longer be politically enforceable for the foreseeable future,” said Daniela Schwarzer, Director for Europe and Eurasia at the Open Society Foundations group. According to the Bloomberg news agency, the US is pushing for the pipeline to be stopped in the event of war in Ukraine.

In contrast, there is no military option for the West in Ukraine. Neither the United States nor the Europeans should be ready to be drawn into a war with Russia there. After the debacle in Afghanistan, Biden definitely does not want to involve his country in a new war. The US does supply weapons, however, and has equipped the Ukrainian armed forces with anti-tank missiles, among other things.

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating the Minsk Agreement. At the heart of the conflict is Russia’s fear that Ukraine might sooner or later become a member of NATO.

Tensions at the border are increasing

The US does not actively support such a request, but insists that only Ukraine can decide for itself whether to join the Western defense alliance. “President Biden reiterated his support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy,” said the White House. Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 and has since been supporting Russian-minded separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz had said before the summit that it had to be “very, very clear” that any further threat to Ukraine would be unacceptable. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on Twitter: “We will react to any further aggression by tightening and expanding the existing sanctions.”

A few hours before the video summit, Ukraine had accused Russia of sending tanks and snipers to the line of contact between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine in order to provoke “counterfire” and thus create an excuse for a potential Russian invasion. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov did not want to comment on the accusation and referred to the Russian Defense Ministry, which initially did not comment.

If Vladimir Putin has shown anything in his long reign, it is opportunism – which in his case, however, means less the flexibility of political positions than a strategic orientation. Putin senses opportunities that he can take advantage of to strengthen Russia’s position of power. That was the case with the attack on Ukraine in 2014, the intervention in Syria in 2015, and this is how it now seems to be again.

Ukraine could again become the target of Russian aggression. At least that is the warning the Americans have given their allies in NATO in recent days. Satellite images show that Russia has concentrated troops on the Ukrainian border. An attack could be imminent, although the Americans stress that, based on their information, Putin has not yet made a decision.

But the opportunity is good in several respects: Germany is in the middle of a change of government, the election campaign has begun in France, and the US under President Joe Biden has clearly signaled that it wants to focus its attention on the hegemonic conflict with China. For a strategic opportunist like Putin, this is an almost irresistible lure.

Traffic light coalition relies on deterrence

“The Europeans should make Putin understand that aggression against Ukraine would have devastating political and economic consequences for Russia,” demands Bijan Djir-Sarai, foreign policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group in the Bundestag.

In short: deterrence is necessary. Djir-Sarai does not want to commit himself to the question of whether German arms deliveries would also be an option. But he makes it clear: “Ukraine should be able to defend itself. No form of support should be taboo. ”

Viola von Cramon, European politician for the Greens, assesses the situation similarly: “Europe must show a clear edge. It is important not to rule anything out now. ”Politically, the demand for arms deliveries is highly controversial. German laws restrict the export of war weapons to crisis areas. Green leader Robert Habeck had nevertheless spoken out in favor of arms deliveries to Kiev in May – and thus triggered a storm of indignation.

Maneuvers by Russian units

Moscow flexes its muscles on the border with Ukraine.

(Photo: AP)

Military experts such as Carlo Masala from the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich still consider the move to be sensible. The rationale behind this is to drive up the price of aggression – and thus prevent Putin from letting himself be tempted to attack.

“It’s about signaling to the Russians that the Russian armed forces would have to pay a high blood toll,” argues Masala. Especially since it is clear that NATO will not defend Ukraine because the country is not part of the alliance area.

The Russians justify their troop deployment with troop transfers in Ukraine and with NATO exercises in the Black Sea. The costs of an escalation would be high, of course Putin knows that. But the threats against Ukraine put him in a strategically favorable position.

Even if he doesn’t give an order to fire, the Kremlin chief is demonstrating his geopolitical importance and forcing negotiations with the United States. Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group in New York, does not believe that Russia is actually preparing an invasion: “Putin’s invasion of Crimea seven years ago benefited greatly from an element of surprise – an advantage Moscow will never have again.”

Russia insists on stopping NATO’s eastward expansion

Nevertheless, Bremmer urges an understanding: “If you want a stable international order, a new NATO agreement with Russia is necessary.” David McAllister, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament, also advocates de-escalation “through diplomacy and dialogue” .

Video summit between Biden and Putin

The focus of the discussions was the topic of Ukraine.

(Photo: via REUTERS)

But it remains unclear what an agreement with Russia might look like. Apparently Putin is demanding a written assurance that NATO will not be expanded any further east – which is hardly negotiable from a Western perspective: Georgia and Ukraine are aspiring to NATO and are already partner countries.

“There can be no compromises at this point,” says FDP foreign policy expert Djir-Sarai. “Neither the Americans nor the Europeans can give the assurance that Ukraine will not become part of NATO. It is a decision that Ukraine, as a sovereign country, will make for itself. “

With agency material

More: Five reasons Putin is risking escalation in Ukraine.

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