Autonomous driving is the big dream of the automotive industry and also the tech sector. In a few years, completely self-driving cars will be on the road everywhere, as if controlled by a magic hand. The driver is no longer needed, those who are in the car can use the time for other things. They’re just passengers.
But autonomous driving will remain a dream for a long time to come. Both car manufacturers and large IT groups are suffering one setback after the other. The last driverless stage is pushed further and further back. It may be at least another ten years before cars really drive completely independently.
The developers of autonomous vehicle systems have rightly recognized that they will first have to lower their expectations in the coming years. Because complete autonomy remains unattainable for the time being, intermediate steps are needed for the transition period. The automotive industry must now work on new assistance systems that also relieve the driver and offer more comfort, but can be developed with much less effort.
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In Europe, the Volkswagen Group has been most involved in autonomous driving. But the Wolfsburg-based company also had to realize that it will be a long time before they can earn good money with their own developments in this area.
Together with Ford and the start-up Argo AI, Volkswagen wanted to use self-driving robotic taxis for passenger transport in Hamburg and later in other cities within a few years. But the cooperation with Argo AI turned out to be a big flop. The US company, which was initially much praised, was unable to fulfill its promises. Schedules were not adhered to, and the introduction of robotic taxis was repeatedly delayed. The consequence: The cooperation with Argo AI was discontinued.
Apple needs patience too
Cariad, the Volkswagen Group’s own software unit, originally wanted to have the first largely self-driving cars ready by 2026. But even these plans, it turned out, were far too ambitious. Soon after taking office, the new CEO Oliver Blume had to face reality and accept the original, overly ambitious schedule. As a result, the software project in terms of autonomous driving will be postponed by at least two years.
Not only the car companies, but also the supposedly progressive IT giants from the USA have to learn a lot when developing autonomous vehicles. Now even Apple has got it.
>> Read here, how CEO Oliver Blume is reorganizing software development at Volkswagen
For years, Apple has been pursuing its secret “Titan” project, which focuses on developing its own car, including autonomous systems at the highest level. But a few weeks ago it became known in the USA that the tech group will need at least a year longer for its planned automotive titan.
And with complete autonomy, things are no longer looking really good for Apple either: the IT giant also supposedly wants to limit itself to the development of advanced assistance systems.
So Europe’s car companies don’t have to hide if the development of autonomous driving isn’t making much headway for them. The US competition on the other side of the Atlantic is struggling with comparable problems.
Tesla boss Elon Musk has been saying for years that his company has developed the only true autonomous system. Instead, Tesla regularly has to deal with the complaints of the American traffic safety authority NHTSA when the autonomous systems have once again not worked properly.
Toyota is very skeptical
The Google sister Waymo also has difficulties: The robotic taxis can only be used to a very limited extent in the USA. Things aren’t going much better for General Motors subsidiary Cruise. The company still needs safety drivers.
In addition, Cruise’s robotic taxis can only drive in parts of the city of San Francisco – and ideally only at night when there are few other road users on the streets. In bad weather conditions, the vehicles should ideally stay in the garage because they have not been sufficiently programmed for this. After a series of accidents involving cruise vehicles, the US security authorities also took action at the GM subsidiary and launched an investigation.
Doubts about autonomous driving are growing not only in the USA and Europe, but also in Japan. The Toyota group, for example, expects that real progress will only be made in the next decade. Autonomous vehicles can only be used in clearly defined areas such as a port or an industrial site, because the programming effort remains manageable there.
All automakers would be well-advised to follow Toyota’s example: there is no point in continuing to throw billions of dollars out of the window for autonomous driving, which will not earn a single euro in the foreseeable future.
More: The Apple Car will probably not come before 2026 – and without a real autopilot