Attention To These Events And Forecasts For Gold And BTC Next Week!

While the gold and Bitcoin markets remain undecided on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed)’s next policy move, the March jobs report next week may cause a stir in the markets.

Gold and Bitcoin market players will watch this data

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be watched closely by market participants on Monday. The Prices Paid component of the survey increased from 44.5 in January to 51.3 in February, revealing an increase in input inflation. Markets have not yet figured out whether the US Federal Reserve will raise the policy rate once again by 25 basis points (bps) in May. If the PMI survey points to an acceleration in manufacturing input inflation, the hawkish Fed forecasts could bounce back. This could help the dollar find demand. Clearly, gold and Bitcoin could come under bearish pressure.

ADP’s private sector employment report and ISM Services PMI will appear on the US economy chart on Wednesday. The ADP Employment Change is expected to drop sharply from 242K in February to 10K in March. Negative data could put pressure on the dollar, possibly as markets price in a dismal March jobs report. A noticeable drop in the Prices Paid sub-index of the ISM Services PMI could also hurt the dollar and vice versa.

NFP likely to be the main market driver

Ahead of the weekend, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release labor market data for March, which is forecast to show an 8,000 drop in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). According to market analyst Eren Şengezer, even if NFP comes in higher than expected, any data below 50,000 could be a red flag and trigger a foot drop in US yields and the dollar. On the other hand, an increase in NFP of 100,000 or higher could increase returns, putting pressure on gold and BTC.

Meanwhile, wage inflation, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, is expected to decline to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.6% in February. A larger-than-expected drop in this data would likely be negative for the dollar, while an increase would have the opposite effect. However, NFP is likely to be the main market driver this time around.

Both gold and Bitcoin market players will continue to consider Fed officials’ statements. While it’s unlikely that policymakers will try to steer markets in a particular direction without seeing the jobs report and March inflation data, hawkish statements could help the dollar stay resilient against its rivals, he said.

Gold price technical view

Market analyst Eren Şengezer draws attention to the following levels in the technical outlook of gold. The price action witnessed in the second half of March confirmed the importance of $2,000 as a resistance. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays close to show that the uptrend remains intact, buyers may hesitate if the gold price does not make a daily close above this level.

On the downside, near-term support is formed at $1,950 (static level) ahead of $1,930 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and $1,900 (50-day SMA, psychological level). Should gold claim $2,000 and start using it as support, the next bullish target is at $2,050 (static level) before $2,070 (March 2022 high).

Gold

Gold forecast survey: Short-term decline is expected

The FXStreet Forecast Survey points to a bearish bias in the short term, with the one-week average target aligned at $1,967. The one-month outlook remains overwhelmingly bearish, with only one expert expecting gold to break above $2,000 by the end of this time frame.

Gold

Bitcoin leads the upside in Q1

According to a recent news release from IntotheBlock, cryptocurrencies outperformed other asset classes in the first quarter. Also, digital assets posted gains that were not witnessed in two years after selling pressure eased after the collapse of FTX. cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin experienced the highest quarterly price increases since the first quarter of 2021.

In March 2023, Bitcoin’s market cap increased by 20%, contributing to a positive 70% shift in the first quarter. Bitcoin’s phenomenal performance, its correlation with gold prices increased from -0.3 at the beginning of the year to 0.9 at the end of the quarter. This could be indicative of Bitcoin’s growing appeal as a digital asset for store of value.

The market experienced a significant increase in spot prices, with increased trading activity and a notable interest in options trading for BTC. Bitcoin’s options contracts have reached an unprecedented milestone, according to data from CME Group. Additionally, despite the collapse of the Bittrex US crypto exchange, the BTC market looked stable, with the world’s most comprehensive digital asset posting positive indicators and trading above the recently regained $28,000 price mark.

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