Around 60,000 additional jobs by 2040

Assembly of a Porsche engine

The construction of electric vehicles is less labor-intensive than that of combustion engines.

(Photo: dpa)

Berlin If the desired mobility turnaround becomes a reality, around 60,000 additional jobs could be created by 2040. The employment effects are distributed very differently from region to region.

The biggest winners include Berlin, the Düsseldorf / Ruhr region and Hamburg and the surrounding area. Job losses occur primarily in rural areas, but also in the metropolitan regions of Hanover and Halle / Leipzig, which have so far been heavily influenced by vehicle construction.

These are the core results of a joint study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Society for Economic Structural Research (GWS).

“The bottom line is that the mobility turnaround does not lead to job losses,” says Enzo Weber, who heads the forecast and macroeconomic analyzes department at the IAB. “Even the automotive regions that have so far been living off the combustion engine are not falling into the abyss.”

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Building on previous studies, the researchers examined the employment effects of the shift towards more modern and environmentally friendly mobility behavior. In doing so, they not only consider the move away from the internal combustion engine to electromobility. A total of 15 assumptions are included in the study – from an improvement in the rail infrastructure to the change of drive system and digitization in road freight transport to changes in passenger transport, for example the increased use of car sharing or local public transport.

Manufacturing electric motors requires fewer staff

The researchers predict that around 220,000 jobs will have been lost by 2040, for example in the auto and supplier industry or in vehicle workshops. In the same period, however, 280,000 new jobs are likely to be created, for example for transport and logistics clerks.

“Many think that the high-paying auto jobs will disappear and only poorly paid new jobs will be created,” says IAB researcher Weber. But that is not the case. “There is an increase in employment at all skill levels.”

In most of the labor market regions examined, the changed mobility behavior has only very minor and mostly positive effects in relation to the development of the number of employees, according to the study. “Nevertheless, the upheaval due to the change of drive in motorized private transport will present a major challenge for some regions in the coming decades.”

S-Bahn users

Increased use of local public transport can have a positive impact not only on the environment but also on employment.

(Photo: dpa)

This applies, for example, to the Halle / Leipzig, Hanover or Saarland regions, locations of the automotive and supplier industries. Even if electric cars are produced there in the future, there is a risk of job losses because their assembly is less labor-intensive than that of combustion engines.

The researchers expect the greatest relative job losses in the Regensburg area, in the Kassel, Halle / Leipzig and Chemnitz regions. In absolute numbers, however, the job losses are manageable; in Hanover, for example, there are a good 5,000 jobs.

Jobs in IT and corporate management arise

The biggest winner of the mobility transition from an employment perspective would be Berlin, where the bottom line is that with almost 20,000 most new jobs are to be created. In general, the metropolises will benefit more from the mobility transition than the rural areas, although there is more pent-up demand there – for example with regard to the expansion of local public transport.

But there are simply more people living in the big cities who can switch from their own car to local transport, for example. In addition, the bus or train network is already better developed there and car sharing is more widespread, which makes it easier to switch.

In addition to the capital, a successful mobility turnaround would have positive employment effects, especially in the regions around Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt am Main, Karlsruhe / Mannheim and Nuremberg.

The move away from the combustion engine and autonomous driving have resulted in job losses in all regions, for example because fewer repair shops or fewer truck drivers will be needed in the future.

The researchers see the greatest positive employment effects due to the expected changes in mobility behavior in passenger transport. This is by no means just about additional bus or suburban train drivers, but also about new jobs in the organization, in IT system support or in corporate management.

More: Transport Minister Wissing relies on proven staff

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