Leading German economists expect disillusionment soon after the formation of the first traffic light coalition in the federal government. The SPD, Greens and FDP are still on their honeymoon, said Ifo President Clemens Fuest on Tuesday at a virtual event for the 50th anniversary of the German Reuters service. “The trouble is still to come.”
In view of the high expectations, there will be disappointments and, in some cases, unrest in the traffic light parties. The new coalition will certainly last four years. DIW President Marcel Fratzscher is even counting on eight years. The economy Monika Schnitzer also considers more than one term of office to be possible. “The opposition has to rearrange itself first.” In addition, the traffic lights fit together very well on socio-political issues, which could convince voters.
Fratzscher called the coalition agreement very ambitious, especially in the areas of climate and the environment. “It very clearly states not only the goals, but also the measures.” It is disappointing that the longer-term investments lack concrete sums. That would have been important for the construction industry, for example. Here, companies need long-term planning security.
The traffic light coalition wants to reduce unnecessary and climate-damaging subsidies – also to create budgetary leeway. That is correct, so Schnitzer. “But that alone won’t be enough.” Fratzscher referred to an IMF study according to which Germany raised almost 70 billion euros in subsidies for fossil fuels every year. But it is illusory to believe that this can be changed immediately. “You have to do it step by step.”