Kamala Harris’s defeat can be attributed to the effects of immigration and inflation, along with her late campaign entry and failure to distinguish herself from Joe Biden. Economic challenges, particularly post-pandemic inflation, negatively impacted her campaign, while Trump’s strong messaging on immigration resonated with voters. Shifts in voter demographics, especially increased support for Trump among African Americans and Latinos, further complicated her position, as did her struggles to effectively address key issues and differentiate her policies from Biden’s.
Reasons Behind Kamala Harris’s Defeat
The significant impact of immigration and inflation, alongside the pro-Trump sentiments among various demographics, played a pivotal role in Kamala Harris’s defeat. Additionally, her late entry into the campaign and insufficient divergence from Joe Biden’s policies contributed to the challenges she faced.
The Economic Burden
“The economy, stupid” is a phrase that has echoed through political history, famously coined by Jim Carville during Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. Fast forward three decades, the lingering effects of post-pandemic inflation and soaring gas and essential goods prices have severely impacted Kamala Harris’s campaign and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, which Donald Trump relentlessly criticized.
Economist Bernard Yaros from Oxford Economics emphasizes that “inflation played a crucial role,” adding that despite signs of slowing down, it did not favor the incumbent party.
Immigration Failures
Donald Trump aggressively targeted illegal immigration during his campaign, labeling millions as “criminals” and vowing to deport them. This message resonated strongly with his supporters and helped broaden his base. Law professor Carl Tobias from the University of Richmond notes that immigration has been a significant factor in Trump’s electoral success since 2016, marked by his rhetoric surrounding the border wall and perceived threats to American jobs.
As vice president responsible for immigration policy, Kamala Harris faced direct attacks from Trump, further complicating her campaign.
Shifting Voter Demographics
Recent exit polls from Edison Research and CNN reveal a concerning trend for Democrats: Donald Trump’s support among African American voters increased from 8% to 13%, and among Latinos from 32% to 45% between 2020 and 2024. This shift indicates a changing demographic landscape that could impact future elections.
Roberto Suro, a professor at the University of Southern California, observes a consistent movement towards Trump among specific groups, including Mexican-American men and evangelical Christians, particularly for those with conservative views on social issues. Surprisingly, Trump also garnered more support from women and younger voters, despite Harris’s campaign focusing on defending rights like abortion.
Sylvie Laurent, a lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, points out that women’s roles in managing household budgets mean they are acutely aware of rising food prices, which have surged over 30% since 2020. Harris’s failure to address these concerns left her campaign vulnerable.
Timing of Campaign Entry
Joe Biden’s announcement to run again in April 2023 raised doubts among many Democrats about his viability. Party leaders chose to back the aging president, overlooking clear signs of decline. When the need for a replacement arose in July, Kamala Harris had a mere three months to enhance her visibility and solidify her campaign strategy.
Political scientist Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia summarizes the situation, stating that the Democratic setback largely stems from Biden’s decision to run at 80, ultimately forcing Harris into a rushed campaign that lacked adequate preparation.
Struggles to Distinguish from Biden
With widespread discontent toward Biden’s presidency, Harris’s attempts to differentiate herself came far too late. She faced criticism not only regarding economic and immigration policies but also from Arab American communities for her stance on Israel.
During an interview on ABC, Harris was caught off guard when asked how she might have acted differently than Biden over the past four years. Her hesitant response, “Nothing special comes to mind,” was deemed “disastrous” by David Axelrod, a former advisor to Barack Obama.
Trump capitalized on this moment, repeatedly showcasing it at his rallies and in campaign materials, effectively undermining Harris’s campaign further.