Bangkok Obaidullah Baheer lined up 17 stacks side by side in a backyard in Kabul. They each consist of a sack of rice and flour, plastic bags with lentils and a canister of frying oil – emergency aid for families who, in view of the economic crisis after the Taliban came to power, no longer have enough to eat. Together with other volunteers, he has already been able to provide for more than 500 households in need, says the 31-year-old, who lectured on conflict resolution at the American University in Kabul until the withdrawal of the western troops.
Baheer raises the money for the relief effort via a crowdfunding platform. More than $ 30,000 has been raised so far. But he has no illusions about the power of the donations: “If Afghanistan’s economy doesn’t get going again, all the aid organizations in the world will not be enough to solve the misery.”
Almost four months after the Taliban marched into Kabul, the country is lacking essentials. Around 23 million people – more than half of the population – are affected by acute food shortages, according to the United Nations World Food Program. Almost nine million of them are at risk of famine.
The international community has not yet found a way to help effectively: Fear that the new Islamist rulers will ultimately benefit is slowing down support. At the same time, the sanctions against the new Taliban rulers run the risk of hitting the wrong people. An ethical dilemma from which the West has not yet found a way out.
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There is not much time to avert a catastrophe: the UN development program UNDP warns that 97 percent of Afghans could slip below the poverty line by the middle of next year. According to the organization, the country’s ailing banking system threatens to collapse completely within a few months if support measures are not taken.
Emergency aid for families: The stacks each consist of a sack of rice and flour, plastic bags with lentils and a canister with frying oil.
(Photo: AFP / Getty Images)
A collapse of the financial system would not only further restrict economic activity in the country, said the local UNDP representative Abdallah Al Dardari. There is also a risk that Afghanistan will be further isolated internationally. “There is no humanitarian solution without the banking sector,” he said.
Long queues are part of everyday life
Long queues in front of the bank branches have become a common sight in the cities of the country. Officially, account holders are allowed to withdraw up to $ 400 per week. But those waiting are regularly turned away because there is no more cash at the counters. Citizens’ confidence in the banks has hit rock bottom.
The volume of deposits there fell due to the influx of customers compared to the previous year by 40 percent to around 1.7 billion dollars. “Nobody wants to leave their money in their accounts anymore,” says Mohammad Irfani, an independent analyst who works for non-governmental organizations in Kabul.
Irfani describes the mood in the metropolis with its four and a half million inhabitants as ambivalent. On the one hand, the population is grateful that the change of power was peaceful and that the fighting in the country had ended. “At the same time, people are also experiencing enormous financial pressure. Many have become unemployed and no longer know how to make a living. “
The deep recession is the result of several factors that hit the country all at once: Even before the Taliban came to power, a severe drought led to massive crop failures in agriculture. At the same time, the economy suffered from chronic dependence on foreign aid.
The government, which was supported by the West and plagued by corruption, had not succeeded until the end to put the country economically on its own feet. The international aid payments corresponded to around 45 percent of the total economic output and also made up the majority of the state budget.
Hundreds of thousands of government employees without wages
With the invasion of the Taliban, this flow of money from abroad ended abruptly – and the country has since experienced a kind of cold withdrawal. Hundreds of thousands of civil servants, including teachers, health officials and the judiciary, have not been paid for months.
The International Monetary Fund expects Afghan economic output to fall by 30 percent this year. According to UN calculations, the average per capita income will slide from around 500 to 350 dollars per year in the coming year – one of the most severe slumps in economic history.
Merit
350
Dollars a year
the average per capita income in Afghanistan is expected to be in the coming year. Source: UN calculations
Measures that the Taliban are supposed to take make fighting the crisis more difficult: The US has frozen almost ten billion dollars in central bank reserves – to prevent the money from falling into the hands of the Islamists. Because the sanctions of the United Nations and the USA forbid doing business with the Taliban, aid organizations and donor countries are confronted with considerable legal uncertainty – and are therefore reluctant to provide support.
Dominik Stillhart, operational head of the International Committee of the Red Cross, considers the situation to be intolerable: “Instead, economic sanctions intended to punish those in power in Kabul are cutting millions of people off their livelihoods,” he said after a six-day visit to Afghanistan. “The international community is turning its back on the country while it stands on the brink of a man-made catastrophe.” He calls for humanitarian aid to be clearly exempt from punitive measures against the Taliban – previously existing US regulations aimed precisely at this point do not go far enough.
Many people have become unemployed and no longer know how to make a living.
(Photo: Reuters)
But a change in strategy is making slow progress at best: According to a media report, the World Bank is working on a plan to release part of the frozen money from the Afghanistan reconstruction fund ARTF. According to this, $ 500 million could flow to the UN and other aid organizations in the country.
However, direct payments to government employees are apparently not planned. Several countries, including Germany, had previously spoken out in favor of paying salaries to teachers, for example, by circumventing the Taliban regime. However, guarantees were required for this – for example that girls could continue to go to school.
EU Commission excludes development aid for the time being
Such a plan could at least temporarily ensure that the basic efficiency of the state is restored, says Magdalena Kirchner, who heads the Afghanistan office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. “But the downward slide of the Afghan economy is not over if there is no movement in the discussion about the frozen reserves and development funds.” Millions of euros that are also supposed to come from the EU would not be enough to stabilize the situation in the long term.
Instead, economic sanctions designed to punish those in power in Kabul are cutting off livelihoods for millions of people. Dominik Stillhart, Operations Manager at the Red Cross
However, the EU Commission ruled out a resumption of regular development aid for the time being. From their point of view, this should only happen when the Taliban guarantee, among other things, compliance with women’s rights and freedom of the media – and form a government that reflects the diversity of the country.
But the rulers in Kabul have so far shown no willingness to accept the conditions: their cabinet consists exclusively of men and members of the Pashtuns – the ethnic group in which the Taliban have their roots.
Protests by women’s rights activists violently suppressed the fighters. Unwelcome journalists receive death threats. Dozens of security forces working for the overthrown government were executed, according to a report by Human Rights Watch.
Conflict researcher Baheer sees his country in a deadlock: The Taliban are unwilling to adhere to international norms and the international community is unable to find an appropriate way to deal with them, he says.
Baheer is one of the few in the conflict who has a deep insight into both sides: his grandfather became known as a brutal mujahideen leader, his father was a prisoner of the Americans for years and publicly celebrated the takeover of power by the Taliban in August.
Baheer himself, who grew up in Pakistan and studied in Australia, rejects the ideology prevalent in his family – and is instead close to progressive activists and journalists who fear for their lives under the Taliban regime.
“We have no other choice than to try to advance the reconciliation process,” he says and pleads for a greater willingness to enter into dialogue. “If this humanitarian crisis is not stopped, it will be a collective failure for which all sides are responsible.”
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