In their latest analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) market trend, popular cryptocurrency analyst Checkmate noted that several key indicators suggest that Bitcoin is no longer in a downtrend. According to Checkmate, the current price movements and market behavior in Bitcoin are a significant departure from the bearish scenarios that investors and market observers have become accustomed to in previous periods. One of the indicators that analysts draw attention to is Asset Value to Investor Value (AVIV) ratiostands out as one of the tools that best summarizes this situation.
According to Checkmate’s detailed analysis, the AVIV ratio shows that Bitcoin is no longer in a downtrend. AVIV is a metric that measures the difference between Bitcoin’s active capitalization and realized capitalization calculated from investors’ average purchase price. This metric deals with the intrinsic value provided by coins that are actively traded in the market, excluding coins that are specifically lost or have been dormant for long periods of time. In this context, the AVIV ratio is a tool used to reveal whether the price of Bitcoin is approaching overbought or oversold levels. Checkmate emphasizes that the AVIV rate is no longer bearish, but has moved to a neutral signal. This transition indicates a possible recovery or more balanced market movement for Bitcoin.
The analyst uses the following statements on this subject: “The momentum of the Bitcoin market has returned to neutral level in multiple time frames. It may not be fully bullish yet, but it is no longer bearish. This means a relative rise for the market.” This comment raises hopes that Bitcoin’s long-lasting sharp fluctuations have ended and can follow a more stable course. A market neutral may be a process that allows investors to act more cautiously in the future; because this indicates that the market is starting to find its balance.
Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply and Bitcoin
Another important indicator that Checkmate draws attention to is Bitcoin short holder (STH) supply metric. This metric tracks the amount of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days, focusing on the time it takes for Bitcoin to change hands. Short-term holders are investors who are generally more speculative and react quickly to market fluctuations. Therefore, changes in the supply of short-term holders can provide important clues about the overall direction of the market.
The analyst says that this metric also gives upward signals and that the slowest period in the market is now behind us. Checkmate said, “Short-term owner supply indicates that the majority of end buyers are starting to make profits again. “All else being equal, this means there is increased potential for market sentiment to improve,” he adds. In other words, the fact that short-term holders started to make profits again shows that stronger confidence has begun to form within the market and Bitcoin has prepared a basis that supports upward movements.
Bitcoin’s Correlation with Other Assets: Gold and Stocks
The analyst also points out Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional financial markets. Recently, Bitcoin has been following a parallel trend with other major financial assets such as gold and stocks. All of these assets are under upward pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank policies around the world. While Checkmate evaluated Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with these assets, “Bitcoin is currently highly correlated with Gold and stocks over the last 30 days. “Given the potential for these assets to reach all-time highs (ATH), this development could be a positive signal for Bitcoin.”
According to Checkmate’s analysis, the Bitcoin market seems to have broken out of its long-standing downtrend and reached a more balanced point. The neutralization of the AVIV rate, short-term holders starting to make profits again, and Bitcoin’s positive correlation with gold and stocks indicate that the market has established a solid basis for upward movements. For investors, these developments may herald a safer and more stable market environment in the short term.
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