Ethereum With the launch of spot ETFs on the horizon, industry insiders are pointing to a potential launch date before July 4. The imminent launch follows VankEck’s Form 8-A filing, which Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas called a “good sign” for a July 2 launch.
Lekker Capital’s Quinn Thompson suggests that the current bearish sentiment among crypto investors could be a bullish indicator. In a recent post, Thompson predicted a period of calm where sellers tire, followed by a “slap in the face” moment where they realize their outlook is very bearish.
This could be triggered by positive spot ETH ETF flows after launch or competition among ETF issuers to offer the lowest fees. Thompson boldly predicts that “Ethereum will reach $7,000 and Bitcoin will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the November election.”
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan expects Ethereum ETF products to attract $15 billion in net flows in their first 18 months on the market. Hougan’s prediction is based on data from Europe and Canada, where crypto ETFs have established markets.
While $15 billion is significantly less than the $56 billion that investors have piled into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan still believes such a figure would be “a historic achievement.” However, he warns that the first net outflows from Ethereum ETFs are “highly likely” as investors exit Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust.
Singapore-based QCP is looking to the Bitcoin ETF launch for clues. “If the Bitcoin ETF approval is any indication, we could see a similar 60% rally from here,” the firm said in a recent note. That would see Ethereum trade at around $5,430 in the months following the ETF launch.
Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of crypto infrastructure firm Consensys, expects a “flood” of demand for ETH, which would likely lead to a supply crunch and push prices higher, according to Lubin. Institutions that already have exposure to Bitcoin ETFs “will likely want to diversify into this second approved ETF,” Lubin said.
Analysts at research firm Bernstein predict that spot Ethereum ETFs will push the price of ETH up 75% to $6,600. They estimated this figure by looking at the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, which spurred a 75% rally in the weeks that followed. “We expect a similar price movement for ETH,” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a recent report.
*This is not investment advice.
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