Three decades after Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum and relinquished its nuclear arsenal, many, including former military engineer Valeryj Kusnezow, regret the decision. The memorandum, which promised security guarantees, is seen as ineffective amidst ongoing Russian aggression. Kusnezow reflects on the weight of his past responsibilities and advocates for Ukraine to either rearm or join NATO. He criticizes past leadership for their loyalty to Kremlin interests, questioning why only Ukraine disarmed while other nations retained their nuclear capabilities.
Reflections on the Budapest Memorandum: A Decision Regretted
Three decades ago, Ukraine made a pivotal decision by signing the Budapest Memorandum, opting to forsake its nuclear arsenal. This move has been widely criticized by many Ukrainians, including former military personnel like Valeryj Kusnezow.
Kusnezow descends approximately 40 meters in a narrow elevator to revisit his former workplace. “This place was meant to endure, yet now it echoes with silence,” reflects the retired rocket engineer as the elevator creaks downward.
The Weight of Command: A Glimpse into the Past
The expansive grounds of the former nuclear missile base, home to the 46th Missile Division, have been transformed into a museum for over two decades. Here, veterans like the spry Kusnezow share their experiences. Inside the old command station, the red light flickers, and Kusnezow playfully simulates a missile launch. “One, two, three, launch,” he counts aloud.
He explains, “You receive the order and are ready to execute it.” In such a scenario, a missile would be launched in a mere 30 seconds. Kusnezow recalls that during the Soviet era, if an order had come from Moscow, he would have followed through. “We were instructed that if a launch order was received, it meant an incoming missile was already en route. From America, the flight time was 22 to 28 minutes, and from Europe, it could be as little as 12 minutes, especially today with hypersonic missile technology.” This urgency underscored the gravity of their responsibilities.
Despite his high-ranking position, Kusnezow would not have known the specifics of a potential target until the final order was given, a decision reached only after navigating a lengthy command chain. He reminisces about a tense moment in 1982 when the threat of nuclear conflict loomed for several minutes as communication lines were down. “The first conclusion we reached was: It is war,” he recalls.
The emergence of new missile types in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine raises alarms for NATO today.
On December 5, 1994, Kusnezow lost his position when then-President Leonid Kuchma signed the Budapest Agreement, committing Ukraine to disarm and relinquish its nuclear weapons. In exchange, Ukraine received security assurances from the USA, the UK, and Russia.
Kusnezow, like many others in Ukraine, believes the memorandum is worthless. As he wanders through the museum, he passionately discusses the formidable nuclear missile systems he once oversaw. He considers the decision to disarm as politically naive and expresses a desire for Ukraine to either join NATO or re-establish its nuclear capabilities. “If we had at least tactical nuclear weapons, there would be no war today,” he asserts with conviction.
Since the onset of the invasion, Russia has launched around 14,000 drones and over 9,000 missiles against Ukraine, some of which were developed using Ukrainian expertise, Kusnezow notes.
During a recent NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiyha publicly criticized the Budapest Memorandum, asserting that it failed to provide adequate security for Ukraine or its transatlantic partners. He emphasized the need for decisive actions and greater solidarity from allies, insisting that peace for Ukraine hinges on a guarantee against further Russian aggression—specifically, Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Amid discussions of various models for support, Ukraine maintains its demand for an official invitation within its internationally recognized 1991 borders, including territories currently occupied by Russia.
Back at the missile museum, Kusnezow gestures towards old missile transporters, some of which now contain remnants of contemporary Russian military equipment. “We want to showcase that too,” he says, as he watches colleagues work on salvaging captured Russian tanks.
Reflecting on his past, the 70-year-old Kusnezow shares, “In the past, the West was my adversary, but now I aspire for Ukraine to become a NATO member.” Even three decades after the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, his resentment towards Leonid Kuchma remains palpable. He believes the leadership of that time committed a grave error against the Ukrainian people and state.
“Why did Russia, China, or the United States not renounce their nuclear capabilities? Only Ukraine did,” he questions, quickly providing his answer: “Because the entire leadership of our country was loyal to the Kremlin.”