The precious metals market is heating up. The gold price increased by more than 14 percent during the year. Currently, gold is traded at $2,346. This increase is due to the increase in demand from emerging markets and the strategic moves of central banks. It also marks a new phase in the gold bull market. Incrementum AG Managing Partner Ronnie Stoeferle believes we are witnessing classic early bull market behavior.
““$4,800 sounds pretty realistic for the gold price!”
According to Ronnie Stoeferle, we are currently in a new phase of the gold bull market. “What we are seeing in the markets is the classic early bull market move,” Stoeferle said. Miners lead gold prices. “Silver is outperforming gold.” says. The horse-silver ratio decreased to around 79. This reveals that silver shows its strong performance compared to gold. Stoeferle is optimistic about the future of gold. In this context, he predicts a long-term price target of $4,800 by 2030. He explains his predictions on this subject as follows:
We laid out this pattern in the In Gold We Trust 2020 report and said our long-term price target for the end of this decade is $4,800. $4,800 sounds amazing, but it’s more like a 10-12% CAGR for the next few years through 2030. This sounds pretty realistic.
Gold mining stocks on the rise
Gold mining stocks, especially those tracked by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), are posting notable gains. GDX has increased nearly 13% in the past three months, reflecting increased investor confidence. Stoeferle said, “Miners lead the gold price. “They outperform gold,” he emphasizes. This growth in GDX underscores the health of the mining sector with gold prices rising even though operating costs are still inflated.
GDX’s performance is important. Because it represents a wide range of gold mining companies that often act as a leveraged play on the price of gold. When gold prices rise, mining stocks tend to rise further as profit margins increase. This is due to the relatively fixed costs of mining operations. So higher gold prices directly translate into higher profits.
Emerging markets fuel demand
One of the main drivers of this bull market is increased demand from emerging markets. cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , central banks of developing countries are making large purchases. “Emerging markets are buying gold like crazy,” Stoeferle said. China and India alone meet more than 50% of all gold demand. “If you include Arab countries, Turkey and Russia, you get from two-thirds to almost 70% of all gold demand.” says. This shift suggests that traditional Western markets are no longer the primary driver of gold demand.
Turkey’s interest in joining BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other partner countries) further emphasizes this shift. As Türkiye becomes more aligned with BRICS+, it aims to strengthen its economic ties. It also aims to reduce its dependence on the US dollar by increasing its gold reserves. Significant gold purchases by central banks, especially after the Ukrainian invasion, also played a critical role. “Since the invasion of Ukraine, central banks have put a floor under the price of gold… Central bank demand has tripled,” adds Stoeferle. This provided strong support to gold prices, ensuring stability continued despite economic uncertainties.
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