In a world marked by crises, wars and climate change, it is easy to get the impression that we are surrounded by dangers and develop fear. However, we know from psychology that fears can not only paralyze but also mobilize. So it is no wonder that the so-called “fear index” VIX on the stock exchange has fluctuated strongly between hope and fear over the past twelve months.
It is therefore worth taking a closer look at the current most serious risks and asking optimistically what would happen if the many threats we are worried about did not end in the “worst case scenario”, but took a more positive course .
When you look in the rear-view mirror, this thought experiment has long been a recognized science. Known as “counterfactual historiography,” historians have long studied “what if…” scenarios to learn more about the actual passage of time.
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So why not use the same process when looking into the future? Not only would we learn more about our alternative courses of action, but it would also release positive energies that could help us prevent the worst from happening.
What if the global economy recovered much faster than expected? At first glance, that sounds pretty far-fetched, since most economists are predicting a long dry spell for the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicts that the US, China and Europe are marching into an economic slump at virtually the same pace. A third of the global economy will even slip into recession.
However, most economic forecasts are based on economic problems, most of which we have already overcome. Inflation appears to have peaked in all Western industrial nations. The price pressure is easing noticeably. This also applies to energy costs: Thanks to the relatively mild winter so far, the gas storage facilities are fuller than expected and prices are only half as high as feared.
In addition, with the end of the corona lockdowns, China has created the conditions for a significant economic recovery. The road out of the pandemic remains rocky and is likely to be paved with numerous setbacks.
However, there is much to suggest that China, like India, will experience a strong growth spurt after the end of the delta virus wave, which should also pull the rest of the global economy out of the economic trough.
What if Europe emerged stronger from the current crises? In the battle between the great powers, Europe was long considered the outright loser: too divided, technologically backward, too prone to economic crises. Compared to other regions of the world, however, the EU has mastered the multitude of current crises better than its critics predicted.
Europe is politically united towards Russia and China – and technologically at least capable of learning and economically resilient. Even the Eurosceptic Brits are beginning to have doubts about their Brexit.
The German economist Moritz Schularick sees the greatest economic challenge of the future in finding a new balance between efficiency and economic dependency. With the European internal market, the EU has excellent prerequisites for this: It offers far more freedom than China and significantly better regulation than the USA. What Europe still lacks is the awareness of making better strategic use of its strengths in the geopolitical struggle with the other powers.
Trump and Putin in retreat
What if, contrary to all prophecies of doom, the USA reinvented itself? The prophecy of the inevitable demise of America as a superpower is as popular as it is arbitrary. Militarily, technologically and economically, the United States remains unchallenged. The real Achilles’ heel of the superpower is its political turmoil. But there are bright spots here too.
The splitter Donald Trump hardly played a role in the drama surrounding the election of the Republican speaker in the House of Representatives. Most of his candidates failed the midterms. The political entrepreneur has dangerous legal proceedings to deal with and formidable opponents in his own party.
It is quite possible that there will be a change of power in the USA in 2024 and that Biden and Trump will retire together. A moderate Republican victory could prove salutary for the US political system.
What if China would break away from Putin’s warlike course? This is not as unrealistic as it might sound at first glance.
American political scientist and risk consultant Ian Bremmer has just played out this scenario, arguing that Beijing could turn its back on the Russian president once a militarily cornered Putin makes serious threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
That sounds like an escalation. However, Bremmer believes that Chinese head of state Xi Jinping would not support such a risky course and would urge Putin to negotiate a solution. The fact that a battered Putin who is ready for anything also represents the greatest geopolitical risk in the new year for Bremmer shows how fine the line is between crisis and relaxation.
More: Why we should see weaknesses and crises more as an opportunity